Oregon State @ Colorado: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Sat, Nov 4, 2023, 10:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Colorado · Conference game

Weather at kickoff41°F5 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Oregon State

6-2 · Power #20

▲ winner

Final

Colorado

4-4 · Power #72

final

Closing spread

ORST -13

✓ COLO W

Total

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

ORST 38–27 COLO

✓ ORST (79%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseORST -13

Total60

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseORST -13

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close60

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseORST -13

Total60

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ORST as a 13-point road favorite at COLO, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: ORST won 26–19; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 60, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 6.1 against an average line of 12.2; 66.9 points a game (usually 55.6). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PITT @ SYR 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-12.25	31–14	W	U58.25
Very close	FLA @ LSU 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-12.5	42–49	L	O61
Very close	WASH @ ASU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-13.5	38–45	L	O56
Close	MD @ IU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-11	38–33	L	O63.5
Close	UNC @ GT 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-12	42–46	L	O65
Close	ORE @ ORST 2020 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-13	38–41	L	O64.5
Close	TA&M @ MIZ 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-11.5	35–14	W	U59.25
Close	CIN @ TLSA 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-10	31–21	P	U59
Close	UCLA @ CAL 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & rest	-11.5	35–28	L	O62.5
Close	CIN @ ECU 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-14.5	35–13	W	U56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ORST LWWWL	5-3	63%	2-2	5-3
COLO LWPLW	4-3-1	57%	2-2	3-1

Venue/role: ORST away, as favorite; COLO home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ORST OU–OU	3-3	50%	6-2
COLO UOUOU	3-4	43%	4-4

Stayed under: it needed 36 in the 4th quarter and got 20. 42% of games with totals 56–64 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ORSTlast 8	6-2 75%	5-3 63%	3-3 50%
COLOlast 8	4-4 50%	4-3-1 57%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ORST+11.2 →+11.3▲ 0.1#17

COLO+3.1 →+0.7▼ 2.4#61

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

ORST

Longer bar = better

COLO

#12

Offense

◀ ORST better

#51

#46

Defense

◀ ORST better

#122

+0.9 #16

Turnovers

Even

+1.3 #6

64 plays #100

Pace

COLO faster ▶

75 plays #11

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ORST has the ball

Advantage: ORST offense

	ORST off	COLO def	Edge
Points / game	36.4 #18	34.9 #125	ORST
Yards / play	6.90 #13	6.27 #123	ORST
PPA / play	+0.32 #7	+0.19 #114	ORST
Success rate	50% #9	46% #124	ORST

When COLO has the ball

Even matchup

	COLO off	ORST def	Edge
Points / game	32.1 #39	21.1 #36	Even
Yards / play	5.46 #86	5.23 #42	ORST
PPA / play	+0.21 #37	−0.02 #19	Even
Success rate	45% #40	43% #86	COLO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

ORST scoring against the COLO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORST scored	8.1 #24	10.1 #33	18.3 #22	7.3 #43	10.9 #7	18.1 #11
COLO allowed	6.0 #87	10.0 #109	16.0 #106	8.5 #121	8.3 #99	16.8 #119

COLO scoring against the ORST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
COLO scored	6.0 #66	7.4 #77	13.4 #76	5.0 #97	11.0 #5	16.0 #29
ORST allowed	2.1 #7	6.8 #58	8.9 #20	4.0 #30	8.3 #99	12.3 #72

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.