North Carolina @ Georgia Tech: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Sat, Oct 28, 2023, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Georgia Tech · Conference game

Weather at kickoff69°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

North Carolina

6-1 · Power #34

final

Final

Georgia Tech

3-4 · Power #53

▲ winner

Closing spread

UNC -12

✓ GT W

Total

65.5

▲ Over · 88 pts

Model before kickoff

UNC 38–26 GT

✗ UNC (79%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUNC -12

Total65.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUNC -12

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close65.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUNC -12

Total65.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNC as a 12-point road favorite at GT, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: GT won 46–42 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 88 points went over 65.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Below normal · usually 79%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Wins below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 6.3 against an average line of 11.7; 66.1 points a game (usually 55.9). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UCLA @ ASU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & season form	-11	50–36	W	O67
Very close	ORE @ ORST 2020 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & spread	-13	38–41	L	O64.5
Very close	UCLA @ CAL 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-11.5	35–28	L	O62.5
Very close	UNC @ DUKE 2020 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-11.5	56–24	W	O63.5
Very close	MD @ IU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-11	38–33	L	O63.5
Very close	FRES @ HAW 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & rest	-10.75	24–27	L	U64.25
Very close	UNC @ FSU 2020 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & situation	-13.5	28–31	L	U65
Very close	MRSH @ MTSU 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & situation	-11	28–34	L	U65.75
Very close	VT @ WAKE 2020 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-10.5	16–23	L	U68.5
Very close	ORE @ ARIZ 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & situation	-13.5	49–22	W	U72

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNC WWWWL	5-2	71%	1-0	5-2
GT LWLWL	3-4	43%	0-3	3-1

Venue/role: UNC away, as favorite; GT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNC UO–OP	3-2-1	60%	6-1
GT OUO–O	4-1	80%	3-4

Went over in Q4. Of 26 earlier overs in games with totals 61.5–69.5, 27% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNClast 7	6-1 86%	5-2 71%	3-2-1 60%
GTlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	4-1 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNC+0.1 →+9.7▲ 9.6#23

GT−2.1 →−1.2▲ 0.9#71

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

UNC

Longer bar = better

#34

Offense

◀ UNC better

#48

#64

Defense

◀ UNC better

#118

+1.1 #8

Turnovers

◀ UNC better

+0.1 #57

77 plays #3

Pace

◀ UNC faster

66 plays #77

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNC has the ball

Advantage: UNC offense

	UNC off	GT def	Edge
Points / game	35.9 #17	30.3 #107	UNC
Yards / play	6.45 #29	6.38 #126	UNC
PPA / play	+0.20 #38	+0.21 #117	UNC
Success rate	44% #50	46% #122	UNC

When GT has the ball

Even matchup

	GT off	UNC def	Edge
Points / game	29.7 #60	22.4 #47	Even
Yards / play	6.56 #19	5.29 #48	GT
PPA / play	+0.17 #51	+0.10 #72	GT
Success rate	42% #63	43% #87	GT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UNC scoring against the GT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNC scored	6.4 #58	12.7 #10	19.1 #18	11.1 #4	3.7 #126	14.9 #45
GT allowed	5.1 #70	4.7 #20	9.9 #33	9.3 #127	11.1 #131	20.4 #133

GT scoring against the UNC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GT scored	6.0 #67	8.7 #58	14.7 #66	8.1 #31	6.9 #65	15.0 #40
UNC allowed	4.0 #40	7.7 #81	11.7 #57	4.9 #49	4.9 #38	9.7 #36

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.