Virginia @ North Carolina: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Sat, Oct 21, 2023, 6:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at North Carolina · Conference game

Weather at kickoff59°F8 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Virginia

1-5 · Power #85

▲ winner

Final

North Carolina

6-0 · Power #34

final

Closing spread

UNC -24

✓ UVA W

Total

Push · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

UVA 16–40 UNC

✗ UNC (96%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUNC -24

Total58

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUNC -24

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close58

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUNC -24

Total58

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNC as a 24-point home favorite against UVA, the favorite won 10, covered 3, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: UVA won 31–27 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 58 points landed on 58, as in 1 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 21.1 against an average line of 23.9; 51.7 points a game (usually 55.1). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SMU vs CLT 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & spread	-23.5	34–16	L	U53.5
Very close	UTAH vs STAN 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & season form	-24	42–7	W	U54
Very close	APP vs GASO 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & season form	-24.5	27–3	L	U55
Close	BYU vs USF 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & season form	-23.5	35–27	L	O54.5
Close	UTAH vs COLO 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & season form	-24	28–13	L	U52.5
Close	FSU vs UL 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-25	49–17	W	O52.5
Close	USC vs ASU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-24.5	42–25	L	O61
Close	CCU vs TXST 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & total	-24.5	35–21	L	U60
Close	TENN vs UTSA 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & total	-24	45–14	W	P59
Close	UCF vs GT 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar total & team ratings	-21	27–10	L	U56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UVA WLWWW	4-2	67%	1-1	3-2
UNC LWWWW	5-1	83%	3-1	5-1

Venue/role: UVA away, as underdog; UNC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UVA OOUPU	3-2-1	60%	1-5
UNC OUO–O	3-2	60%	6-0

In 158 games with totals 54–62, 47% went over; 4% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 28% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UVAlast 6	1-5 17%	4-2 67%	3-2-1 60%
UNClast 6	6-0 100%	5-1 83%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

UVA 51–65 UNC (4 tied) UNC leads · 120 games since 1902 · UVA has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UVA−11.2 →−7.2▲ 4.0#99

UNC+0.1 →+11.6▲ 11.5#18

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

UVA

Longer bar = better

UNC

#99

Offense

UNC better ▶

#34

#98

Defense

UNC better ▶

#61

−0.5 #107

Turnovers

UNC better ▶

+1.2 #10

67 plays #76

Pace

UNC faster ▶

78 plays #4

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UVA has the ball

Advantage: UNC defense

	UVA off	UNC def	Edge
Points / game	22.3 #107	21.0 #45	UNC
Yards / play	5.25 #103	5.32 #51	UNC
PPA / play	+0.08 #89	+0.09 #68	UNC
Success rate	40% #97	43% #81	Even

When UNC has the ball

Advantage: UNC offense

	UNC off	UVA def	Edge
Points / game	37.3 #15	31.8 #113	UNC
Yards / play	6.47 #31	5.56 #68	UNC
PPA / play	+0.21 #42	+0.18 #104	UNC
Success rate	44% #49	44% #105	UNC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UVA scoring against the UNC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UVA scored	5.2 #88	8.0 #76	13.2 #82	5.7 #80	3.5 #125	9.2 #119
UNC allowed	2.3 #15	9.0 #96	11.3 #54	4.0 #35	4.5 #33	8.5 #22

UNC scoring against the UVA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNC scored	6.3 #60	13.2 #8	19.5 #15	11.8 #4	3.8 #124	15.7 #37
UVA allowed	6.2 #92	8.2 #86	14.3 #90	8.7 #122	8.8 #111	17.5 #124

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.