Clemson @ Miami: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Sat, Oct 21, 2023, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Miami · Conference game

Weather at kickoff75°F7 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Clemson

4-2 · Power #19

final

Final

Miami

4-2 · Power #25

▲ winner

Closing spread

CLEM -6

✓ MIA W

Total

▲ Over · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

CLEM 28–23 MIA

✗ CLEM (62%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCLEM -6

Total45

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseCLEM -6

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close45

Line context

Road favorites of 4–8 since 2023: won 69%, covered 57% (55 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCLEM -6

Total45

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CLEM as a 6-point road favorite at MIA, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: MIA won 28–20 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 48 points went over 45, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 65%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 47%

Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 4.1 against an average line of 4.7; 48.5 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	UTAH @ BYU 2021 · Week 2 · close · similar spread	-7	17–26	L	U50
Close	CLEM @ ND 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	14–35	L	O43.5
Close	CLEM @ FSU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-4.5	34–28	W	O51
Close	TA&M @ AUB 2020 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & situation	-6	31–20	W	O48.5
Close	TA&M @ LSU 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & total	-6.25	24–27	L	O46.75
Close	ALA @ TA&M 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar total & situation	-2.5	26–20	W	O45.5
Close	PSU @ AUB 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar total & team ratings	-2.5	41–12	W	O47.5
Close	WISC @ PUR 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar situation	-3.5	30–13	W	O41
Close	UK @ SC 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & situation	-4.5	16–10	W	U49
Close	PITT @ BC 2020 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & total	-6.5	30–31	L	O42.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLEM LWLWL	2-4	33%	1-1	2-3
MIA WLWLL	3-3	50%	2-2	1-1

Venue/role: CLEM away, as favorite; MIA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLEM OOUU–	2-2	50%	4-2
MIA OUO–O	3-1	75%	4-2

Went over in OT. Of 66 earlier overs in games with totals 41–49, 29% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLEMlast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	2-2 50%
MIAlast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	3-1 75%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CLEM−4.1 →+11.9▲ 16.0#17

MIA+11.1 →+11.6▲ 0.5#19

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

CLEM

Longer bar = better

MIA

#48

Offense

MIA better ▶

#13

#14

Defense

Even

#26

+0.2 #58

Turnovers

◀ CLEM better

−0.5 #105

76 plays #6

Pace

◀ CLEM faster

69 plays #59

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CLEM has the ball

Advantage: MIA defense

	CLEM off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	32.2 #44	19.0 #23	MIA
Yards / play	5.74 #69	5.07 #32	MIA
PPA / play	+0.12 #70	+0.03 #39	MIA
Success rate	50% #10	34% #10	Even

When MIA has the ball

Even matchup

	MIA off	CLEM def	Edge
Points / game	37.7 #13	19.3 #27	Even
Yards / play	7.33 #6	4.16 #4	Even
PPA / play	+0.27 #19	−0.09 #8	Even
Success rate	49% #14	35% #16	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

CLEM scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLEM scored	8.5 #23	9.8 #43	18.3 #27	8.0 #34	5.8 #88	13.8 #60
MIA allowed	2.8 #17	4.0 #13	6.8 #9	7.3 #104	4.8 #40	12.2 #70

MIA scoring against the CLEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	6.3 #64	12.8 #9	19.2 #17	7.7 #42	10.8 #8	18.5 #11
CLEM allowed	4.5 #58	3.3 #7	7.8 #13	3.3 #23	7.0 #81	10.3 #45

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.