Miami @ North Carolina: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2023)

Sat, Oct 14, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at North Carolina · Conference game

Weather at kickoff63°F7 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Miami

4-1 · Power #25

final

Final

North Carolina

5-0 · Power #34

▲ winner

Closing spread

UNC -2.5

✓ UNC W

Total

55.5

▲ Over · 72 pts

Model before kickoff

MIA 27–29 UNC

✓ UNC (55%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseUNC -2.5

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUNC -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close55.5

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 46% (43 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseUNC -2.5

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNC as a 2.5-point home favorite against MIA, the favorite won 3, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: UNC won 41–31; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 72 points went over 55.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 8.7 against an average line of 2.4; 55.3 points a game (usually 54.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LSU vs AUB 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	19–24	L	U56
Very close	UCF vs CIN 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-1.5	25–21	W	U55.5
Very close	UCLA vs ASU 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & situation	-3	23–42	L	O56
Very close	BAY vs KSU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	3–31	L	U52.25
Very close	SMU vs CIN 2020 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-1	13–42	L	U57
Very close	BAY vs OKST 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	25–36	L	O56
Very close	ORST vs ORE 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-1	38–34	W	O57
Very close	ARK vs AUB 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4.5	23–38	L	O54.5
Very close	UTAH vs ASU 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	35–21	W	O51.25
Very close	MD vs PUR 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	29–31	L	O59.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA WWLWL	3-2	60%	1-0	1-0
UNC WLWWW	4-1	80%	2-1	4-1

Venue/role: MIA away, as underdog; UNC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA –OUO–	2-1	67%	4-1
UNC UOUO–	2-2	50%	5-0

Went over in Q4. Of 81 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–59.5, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIAlast 5	4-1 80%	3-2 60%	2-1 67%
UNClast 5	5-0 100%	4-1 80%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIA+11.1 →+13.6▲ 2.5#17

UNC+0.1 →+10.5▲ 10.4#22

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

MIA

Longer bar = better

UNC

#11

Offense

◀ MIA better

#36

#14

Defense

◀ MIA better

#55

+0.2 #53

Turnovers

UNC better ▶

+0.6 #33

67 plays #69

Pace

UNC faster ▶

78 plays #4

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: MIA offense

	MIA off	UNC def	Edge
Points / game	39.0 #13	19.0 #30	Even
Yards / play	7.55 #6	5.08 #36	MIA
PPA / play	+0.32 #15	+0.09 #65	MIA
Success rate	51% #11	43% #87	MIA

When UNC has the ball

Advantage: MIA defense

	UNC off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	36.6 #18	14.6 #12	Even
Yards / play	6.43 #36	4.64 #17	Even
PPA / play	+0.21 #40	−0.03 #22	Even
Success rate	44% #50	31% #4	MIA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

MIA scoring against the UNC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	7.6 #38	12.0 #16	19.6 #17	9.2 #20	10.2 #13	19.4 #10
UNC allowed	2.8 #20	7.4 #81	10.2 #43	4.8 #52	2.6 #7	7.4 #13

UNC scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNC scored	6.2 #63	14.4 #5	20.6 #13	10.0 #13	3.4 #125	13.4 #68
MIA allowed	2.0 #9	3.4 #9	5.4 #6	4.6 #50	4.6 #37	9.2 #32

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.