USC @ Notre Dame: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2023)

Sat, Oct 14, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Notre Dame

Weather at kickoff50°F10 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

USC

6-0 · Power #23

final

Final

Notre Dame

5-2 · Power #6

▲ winner

Closing spread

ND -3.5

✓ ND W

Total

60.5

▲ Over · 68 pts

Model before kickoff

USC 31–34 ND

✓ ND (61%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseND -3.5

Total60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseND -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close60.5

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 54%, covered 41% (46 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseND -3.5

Total60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ND as a 3.5-point home favorite against USC, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ND won 48–20; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 68 points went over 60.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.2 against an average line of 3.3; 60.6 points a game (usually 54.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	OKST vs TEX 2020 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	34–41	L	O58.5
Very close	UTAH vs USC 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	43–42	L	O65
Close	UTAH vs ORE 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	38–7	W	U58.5
Close	UNC vs VT 2020 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	56–45	W	O58.75
Close	MD vs PUR 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	29–31	L	O59.5
Close	ISU vs TEX 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-6	30–7	W	U59.5
Close	KSU vs OKST 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	48–0	W	U57.5
Close	MSST vs MISS 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & rest	-2	21–31	L	U65
Close	BAY vs OKST 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	25–36	L	O56
Close	UCLA vs WSU 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & total	-3.5	25–17	W	U60

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USC WWLLL	2-4	33%	0-2	—
ND WLPWL	4-2-1	67%	1-1-1	4-2

Venue/role: USC away, as underdog; ND home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USC –UOO–	3-1	75%	6-0
ND OOUU–	3-2	60%	5-2

Went over in Q4. Of 42 earlier overs in games with totals 56.5–64.5, 24% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USClast 6	6-0 100%	2-4 33%	3-1 75%
NDlast 7	5-2 71%	4-2-1 67%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USC+9.1 →+14.0▲ 4.9#13

ND+9.1 →+14.5▲ 5.4#12

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

USC

Longer bar = better

Offense

◀ USC better

#24

#84

Defense

ND better ▶

#24

+0.7 #23

Turnovers

◀ USC better

+0.1 #63

62 plays #119

Pace

Even

63 plays #108

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USC has the ball

Even matchup

	USC off	ND def	Edge
Points / game	51.8 #1	15.9 #15	Even
Yards / play	8.49 #2	4.44 #11	Even
PPA / play	+0.48 #3	+0.05 #48	USC
Success rate	52% #10	36% #21	Even

When ND has the ball

Advantage: ND offense

	ND off	USC def	Edge
Points / game	34.1 #34	27.0 #81	ND
Yards / play	6.98 #16	5.72 #83	ND
PPA / play	+0.32 #16	+0.17 #104	ND
Success rate	47% #30	41% #66	ND

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

USC scoring against the ND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USC scored	12.8 #5	16.2 #1	29.0 #1	9.2 #21	11.2 #8	20.3 #6
ND allowed	2.4 #15	2.4 #3	4.9 #2	5.3 #64	5.7 #55	11.0 #53

ND scoring against the USC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ND scored	6.4 #56	10.4 #35	16.9 #47	7.7 #43	9.6 #19	17.3 #21
USC allowed	4.0 #45	7.3 #75	11.3 #56	5.2 #60	8.3 #102	13.5 #86

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.