Notre Dame @ Louisville: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2023)

Sat, Oct 7, 2023, 7:37 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Louisville

Weather at kickoff55°F6 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Notre Dame

5-1 · Power #6

final

Final

Louisville

5-0 · Power #21

▲ winner

Closing spread

ND -7

✓ LOU W

Total

—

Model before kickoff

ND 32–24 LOU

✗ ND (70%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseND -7

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseND -7

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close—

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseND -7

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ND as a 7-point road favorite at LOU, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: LOU won 33–20 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.1 against an average line of 6; 62.1 points a game (usually 54.2).

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TEX @ ARK 2021 · Week 2 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6	21–40	L	O57.5
Very close	ND @ DUKE 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	21–14	W	U52.5
Very close	OU @ TCU 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & season form	-5	24–55	L	O69.5
Very close	CLEM @ WAKE 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	51–45	L	O58
Very close	TEX @ TTU 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7	34–37	L	O60.25
Very close	USC @ ORST 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	17–14	L	U70.25
Very close	BYU @ BSU 2020 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	51–17	W	O62.5
Very close	FLA @ UK 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	13–20	L	U56.5
Close	ORE @ WSU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	44–41	L	O57.25
Close	CLEM @ FSU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	34–28	W	O51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ND WWLPW	4-1-1	80%	2-0	4-1
LOU LWLWL	2-3	40%	2-0	—

Venue/role: ND away, as favorite; LOU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ND OOOUU	3-2	60%	5-1
LOU –OUOU	2-2	50%	5-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NDlast 6	5-1 83%	4-1-1 80%	3-2 60%
LOUlast 5	5-0 100%	2-3 40%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ND+9.1 →+16.6▲ 7.5#10

LOU+2.1 →+7.2▲ 5.1#30

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

Longer bar = better

LOU

#15

Offense

Even

#14

#21

Defense

◀ ND better

#35

+0.8 #18

Turnovers

◀ ND better

+0.4 #42

62 plays #114

Pace

LOU faster ▶

66 plays #77

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ND has the ball

Even matchup

	ND off	LOU def	Edge
Points / game	36.5 #23	17.2 #23	Even
Yards / play	7.42 #11	5.24 #51	ND
PPA / play	+0.45 #6	+0.01 #37	ND
Success rate	49% #19	36% #27	Even

When LOU has the ball

Even matchup

	LOU off	ND def	Edge
Points / game	37.0 #19	13.0 #14	Even
Yards / play	7.47 #10	4.31 #9	Even
PPA / play	+0.37 #12	+0.03 #45	LOU
Success rate	51% #13	33% #14	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

ND scoring against the LOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ND scored	7.5 #44	11.0 #26	18.5 #35	8.0 #42	10.0 #16	18.0 #18
LOU allowed	0.0 #1	10.4 #110	10.4 #49	4.2 #41	2.6 #5	6.8 #14

LOU scoring against the ND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LOU scored	6.8 #54	14.0 #10	20.8 #12	9.6 #22	6.6 #71	16.2 #36
ND allowed	1.7 #9	2.8 #5	4.5 #2	4.5 #47	4.0 #24	8.5 #30

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.