Virginia Tech @ Florida State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2023)

Sat, Oct 7, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Florida State · Conference game

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Virginia Tech

2-3 · Power #41

final

Final

Florida State

4-0 · Power #14

▲ winner

Closing spread

FSU -25.5

✓ VT W

Total

—

Model before kickoff

VT 12–37 FSU

✓ FSU (96%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseFSU -25.5

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseFSU -25.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close—

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseFSU -25.5

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FSU as a 25.5-point home favorite against VT, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: FSU won 39–17; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 55%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 19.4 against an average line of 24.2; 50.4 points a game (usually 56.4).

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MICH vs NU 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-23.5	33–7	W	U51
Very close	PSU vs NU 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-25.5	17–7	L	U50
Very close	FSU vs UL 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & season form	-25	49–17	W	O52.5
Very close	FSU vs GT 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-23.5	41–16	W	O48
Very close	PSU vs ILL 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation	-24.5	18–20	L	U45.5
Very close	USC vs ASU 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & spread	-24.5	42–25	L	O61
Very close	ORE vs COLO 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & situation	-24.5	52–29	L	O49.5
Very close	UTAH vs COLO 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar team ratings & spread	-24	28–13	L	U52.5
Close	UTAH vs STAN 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & season form	-24	42–7	W	U54
Close	OU vs BAY 2020 · Week 14 · close · similar season form & situation	-23	27–14	L	U61

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
VT WLLLW	2-3	40%	0-2	1-2
FSU WWLW	3-1	75%	1-0	2-1

Venue/role: VT away, as underdog; FSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
VT OUOUO	3-2	60%	2-3
FSU –OOU	2-1	67%	4-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
VTlast 5	2-3 40%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%
FSUlast 4	4-0 100%	3-1 75%	2-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

VT+3.6 →−2.6▼ 6.2#80

FSU+6.4 →+15.3▲ 8.9#14

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

Longer bar = better

FSU

#105

Offense

FSU better ▶

#33

#54

Defense

Even

#61

0.0 #82

Turnovers

FSU better ▶

+0.5 #38

70 plays #41

Pace

◀ VT faster

63 plays #111

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When VT has the ball

Advantage: FSU defense

	VT off	FSU def	Edge
Points / game	24.8 #96	22.5 #49	FSU
Yards / play	4.99 #116	5.72 #85	FSU
PPA / play	+0.02 #112	+0.08 #66	FSU
Success rate	39% #95	38% #42	FSU

When FSU has the ball

Advantage: FSU offense

	FSU off	VT def	Edge
Points / game	43.3 #10	24.2 #65	FSU
Yards / play	6.84 #24	5.32 #56	FSU
PPA / play	+0.26 #26	+0.06 #60	FSU
Success rate	42% #71	37% #34	VT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

VT scoring against the FSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VT scored	3.2 #118	10.2 #44	13.4 #84	7.0 #57	4.4 #111	11.4 #95
FSU allowed	4.3 #57	7.5 #74	11.8 #63	5.0 #58	5.8 #61	10.8 #55

FSU scoring against the VT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FSU scored	6.0 #64	13.0 #15	19.0 #28	13.8 #1	8.8 #33	22.5 #3
VT allowed	4.2 #54	10.2 #105	14.4 #90	5.6 #72	4.2 #27	9.8 #43

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.