Florida International @ New Mexico State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2023)

Wed, Oct 4, 2023, 9:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at New Mexico State · Conference game

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Florida International

3-2 · Power #131

final

Final

New Mexico State

2-3 · Power #84

▲ winner

Closing spread

NMSU -4.5

✓ NMSU W

Total

—

Model before kickoff

FIU 21–26 NMSU

✓ NMSU (65%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNMSU -4.5

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseNMSU -4.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close—

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNMSU -4.5

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NMSU as a 4.5-point home favorite against FIU, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: NMSU won 34–17; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.3 against an average line of 4.6; 52.5 points a game (usually 54.2).

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	OHIO vs BGSU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & season form	-5.5	38–14	W	U52.5
Very close	UTEP vs ODU 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & spread	-5.5	28–21	W	O48.5
Very close	FAU vs RICE 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & situation	-5	17–14	L	U54.5
Very close	MTSU vs ODU 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	17–24	L	U48.5
Very close	CCU vs USM 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & season form	-5	26–23	L	O48
Very close	CMU vs NIU 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & season form	-6	38–39	L	O56
Very close	USU vs HAW 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & situation	-4	51–31	W	O66
Very close	GAST vs CONN 2023 · Week 2 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-3	35–14	W	U54.5
Very close	FAU vs MTSU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	17–27	L	U49.5
Very close	TROY vs GASO 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & spread	-5.5	27–24	L	O50.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FIU WLWWL	3-2	60%	2-0	3-1
NMSU LWLWW	3-2	60%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: FIU away, as underdog; NMSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FIU –UOUU	1-3	25%	3-2
NMSU OOUUU	2-3	40%	2-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FIUlast 5	3-2 60%	3-2 60%	1-3 25%
NMSUlast 5	2-3 40%	3-2 60%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FIU−5.6 →−13.4▼ 7.8#126

NMSU−6.9 →−9.9▼ 3.0#113

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

FIU

Longer bar = better

NMSU

#102

Offense

NMSU better ▶

#25

#62

Defense

◀ FIU better

#100

0.0 #68

Turnovers

◀ FIU better

−0.8 #113

56 plays #129

Pace

Even

54 plays #134

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FIU has the ball

Even matchup

	FIU off	NMSU def	Edge
Points / game	21.4 #108	26.4 #81	NMSU
Yards / play	5.59 #83	5.85 #93	Even
PPA / play	+0.02 #115	+0.22 #116	Even
Success rate	39% #102	45% #111	Even

When NMSU has the ball

Advantage: NMSU offense

	NMSU off	FIU def	Edge
Points / game	29.8 #67	25.6 #75	Even
Yards / play	8.08 #4	5.78 #91	NMSU
PPA / play	+0.31 #17	+0.01 #38	NMSU
Success rate	51% #12	38% #42	NMSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

FIU scoring against the NMSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FIU scored	8.2 #36	7.4 #87	15.6 #64	4.2 #104	1.6 #132	5.8 #129
NMSU allowed	3.4 #39	8.6 #90	12.0 #69	5.4 #67	9.0 #111	14.4 #98

NMSU scoring against the FIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NMSU scored	4.0 #100	12.2 #20	16.2 #59	4.0 #108	9.6 #21	13.6 #70
FIU allowed	6.0 #83	7.2 #64	13.2 #77	6.8 #90	5.6 #58	12.4 #73

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.