Nebraska @ Illinois: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2023)

Fri, Oct 6, 2023, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Illinois · Conference game

Weather at kickoff51°F12 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

Nebraska

2-3 · Power #62

▲ winner

Final

Illinois

2-3 · Power #67

final

Closing spread

ILL -3.5

✓ NEB W

Total

—

Model before kickoff

NEB 19–23 ILL

✗ ILL (59%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseILL -3.5

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseILL -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close—

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseILL -3.5

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ILL as a 3.5-point home favorite against NEB, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: NEB won 20–7 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.7 against an average line of 3.5; 48.1 points a game (usually 54.6). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3.

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MD vs IU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	38–35	L	O48
Very close	GT vs VT 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	17–26	L	U55.25
Very close	VT vs GT 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-4	27–28	L	O40.5
Very close	PUR vs ILL 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar season form & situation	-1	44–19	W	O53.5
Very close	AUB vs TA&M 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-1.5	13–10	W	U48.5
Very close	VT vs BC 2022 · Week 2 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3	27–10	W	U45
Very close	CAL vs STAN 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5	27–20	W	O46
Very close	IU vs RUTG 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & rest	-6.5	3–38	L	U42.5
Very close	SJSU vs WYO 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	27–21	W	O40.5
Very close	NCST vs DUKE 2020 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	31–20	W	U59.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NEB WLWLL	2-3	40%	1-1	1-2
ILL LLLLL	0-5	0%	0-3	0-2

Venue/role: NEB away, as underdog; ILL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NEB –UOUO	2-2	50%	2-3
ILL –UUUO	1-3	25%	2-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NEBlast 5	2-3 40%	2-3 40%	2-2 50%
ILLlast 5	2-3 40%	0-5 0%	1-3 25%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

NEB 14–7 ILL (1 tied) NEB leads · 22 games since 1892 · ILL has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NEB+0.1 →−0.7▼ 0.8#63

ILL−0.7 →−1.1▼ 0.4#64

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

NEB

Longer bar = better

ILL

#97

Offense

ILL better ▶

#66

#62

Defense

◀ NEB better

#102

−1.2 #128

Turnovers

Even

−1.2 #131

60 plays #127

Pace

ILL faster ▶

67 plays #72

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NEB has the ball

Even matchup

	NEB off	ILL def	Edge
Points / game	18.8 #124	30.6 #104	Even
Yards / play	5.83 #68	5.62 #73	Even
PPA / play	+0.02 #113	+0.20 #113	Even
Success rate	41% #81	46% #118	NEB

When ILL has the ball

Even matchup

	ILL off	NEB def	Edge
Points / game	21.6 #107	23.8 #60	NEB
Yards / play	5.85 #65	4.77 #25	NEB
PPA / play	+0.12 #69	+0.15 #96	ILL
Success rate	49% #22	41% #66	ILL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

NEB scoring against the ILL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEB scored	1.4 #130	2.8 #128	4.2 #133	5.6 #84	9.0 #28	14.6 #53
ILL allowed	7.8 #116	8.6 #92	16.4 #107	8.2 #108	6.0 #63	14.2 #98

ILL scoring against the NEB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ILL scored	2.0 #124	7.6 #85	9.6 #118	6.0 #81	6.0 #79	12.0 #85
NEB allowed	3.4 #38	7.4 #67	10.8 #54	3.4 #32	9.6 #118	13.0 #81

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.