Illinois @ Purdue: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2023)

Sat, Sep 30, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Purdue · Conference game

Weather at kickoff79°F6 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Illinois

2-2 · Power #67

final

Final

Purdue

1-3 · Power #66

▲ winner

Closing spread

Pick’em

✓ PUR W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 63 pts

Model before kickoff

ILL 26–27 PUR

✓ PUR (52%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePick’em

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ILL LLLL	0-4	0%	0-1	—
PUR LWLL	1-3	25%	0-3	—

Venue/role: ILL away; PUR home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ILL –UUU	0-3	0%	2-2
PUR –UUO	1-2	33%	1-3

Went over in Q4. Of 67 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 39% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ILLlast 4	2-2 50%	0-4 0%	0-3 0%
PURlast 4	1-3 25%	1-3 25%	1-2 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

ILL 47–48 PUR (6 tied) PUR leads · 101 games since 1892 · PUR has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ILL−0.7 →+0.3▲ 1.0#61

PUR−4.2 →−0.1▲ 4.1#64

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

ILL

Longer bar = better

PUR

#61

Offense

◀ ILL better

#88

#96

Defense

Even

#91

−1.5 #132

Turnovers

PUR better ▶

−0.5 #99

67 plays #67

Pace

PUR faster ▶

72 plays #28

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ILL has the ball

Advantage: ILL offense

	ILL off	PUR def	Edge
Points / game	22.3 #99	32.3 #114	Even
Yards / play	5.89 #62	5.63 #79	Even
PPA / play	+0.15 #64	+0.14 #96	ILL
Success rate	51% #17	41% #76	ILL

When PUR has the ball

Even matchup

	PUR off	ILL def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #92	27.3 #93	Even
Yards / play	5.54 #85	5.60 #76	Even
PPA / play	+0.06 #94	+0.20 #112	Even
Success rate	41% #79	44% #101	PUR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

ILL scoring against the PUR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ILL scored	1.8 #124	7.0 #92	8.8 #121	7.5 #48	6.0 #77	13.5 #66
PUR allowed	7.0 #108	12.0 #119	19.0 #119	3.5 #37	9.8 #118	13.3 #92

PUR scoring against the ILL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PUR scored	4.3 #92	7.8 #81	12.0 #88	7.0 #53	5.0 #96	12.0 #77
ILL allowed	8.3 #119	8.3 #87	16.5 #109	5.0 #68	5.8 #61	10.8 #63

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.