Penn State @ Northwestern: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2023)

Sat, Sep 30, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Northwestern · Conference game

Weather at kickoff72°F6 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Penn State

4-0 · Power #5

▲ winner

Final

Northwestern

2-2 · Power #65

final

Closing spread

PSU -27

✓ PSU W

Total

▲ Over · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

PSU 37–12 NU

✓ PSU (97%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePSU -27

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

ClosePSU -27

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close48

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePSU -27

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PSU as a 27-point road favorite at NU, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: PSU won 41–13; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 54 points went over 48, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 95%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 55%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 20.9 against an average line of 24.2; 48.1 points a game (usually 56.9). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MICH @ RUTG 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-26.5	52–17	W	O45
Close	FSU @ BC 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar total & rest	-25.25	31–29	L	O47.75
Close	CIN @ NAVY 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar total & situation	-28.5	27–20	L	U49.25
Close	MIA @ TEM 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar total & rest	-23.5	41–7	W	O46.5
Loose	UTAH @ ARIZ 2021 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & situation	-24	38–29	L	O54.5
Loose	HOU @ TEM 2021 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & spread	-25.5	37–8	W	U52.5
Loose	MICH @ IU 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation & rest	-23.5	31–10	L	U57.5
Loose	CLEM @ BC 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & total	-21	31–3	W	U48.75
Loose	UGA @ UK 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar total & rest	-22.5	16–6	L	U47.5
Loose	DUKE @ CONN 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & total	-22	41–7	W	O45

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PSU WWWW	4-0	100%	1-0	4-0
NU LWLW	2-2	50%	2-0	1-2

Venue/role: PSU away, as favorite; NU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PSU –OUU	1-2	33%	4-0
NU UOOO	3-1	75%	2-2

Went over in Q4. Of 60 earlier overs in games with totals 44–52, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PSUlast 4	4-0 100%	4-0 100%	1-2 33%
NUlast 4	2-2 50%	2-2 50%	3-1 75%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

PSU 16–7 NU PSU leads · 23 games since 1993 · NU has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PSU+6.6 →+16.5▲ 9.9#8

NU−3.1 →−4.3▼ 1.2#85

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

PSU

Longer bar = better

#39

Offense

◀ PSU better

#86

#10

Defense

◀ PSU better

#97

+2.8 #1

Turnovers

◀ PSU better

0.0 #83

83 plays #1

Pace

◀ PSU faster

68 plays #60

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PSU has the ball

Advantage: PSU offense

	PSU off	NU def	Edge
Points / game	40.5 #14	25.8 #81	PSU
Yards / play	5.45 #87	5.75 #90	Even
PPA / play	+0.27 #31	+0.22 #116	PSU
Success rate	50% #24	44% #102	PSU

When NU has the ball

Advantage: PSU defense

	NU off	PSU def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #94	8.8 #4	PSU
Yards / play	4.97 #112	4.08 #3	PSU
PPA / play	+0.13 #70	−0.08 #19	PSU
Success rate	42% #67	33% #12	PSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

PSU scoring against the NU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PSU scored	7.5 #47	11.3 #35	18.8 #37	12.3 #5	9.5 #23	21.8 #4
NU allowed	7.0 #106	9.3 #98	16.3 #103	7.0 #98	1.8 #4	8.8 #33

NU scoring against the PSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NU scored	1.8 #121	3.5 #121	5.3 #129	6.0 #68	11.3 #8	17.3 #35
PSU allowed	1.8 #9	3.5 #20	5.3 #7	0.0 #1	3.5 #21	3.5 #2

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.