USC @ Colorado: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2023)

Sat, Sep 30, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Colorado · Conference game

Weather at kickoff63°F4 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

USC

4-0 · Power #23

▲ winner

Final

Colorado

3-1 · Power #72

final

Closing spread

USC -22.5

✓ COLO W

Total

▲ Over · 89 pts

Model before kickoff

USC 46–27 COLO

✓ USC (92%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUSC -22.5

Total74

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUSC -22.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close74

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUSC -22.5

Total74

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 4 games most like USC as a 22.5-point road favorite at COLO, the favorite won 3, covered 2, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: USC won 48–41; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 4 similar games. 89 points went over 74, as in 2 of 4.

Favorite won

3 of 475%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

2 of 450%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

2 of 450%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 4 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 14 against an average line of 22.9; 83 points a game (usually 55.1). When games like this go over ›

All 4 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	ALA @ MISS 2020 · Week 6 · loose · similar total & situation	-24	63–48	L	O74
Loose	TENN @ SC 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar spread & rest	-22.5	38–63	L	O67
Loose	CLEM @ VT 2020 · Week 14 · loose · similar spread & situation	-23.5	45–10	W	U67
Loose	ALA @ TENN 2020 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & situation	-21.5	48–17	W	U66.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USC LWWL	2-2	50%	0-1	2-2
COLO WWLL	2-2	50%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: USC away, as favorite; COLO home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USC O–UO	2-1	67%	4-0
COLO –UOU	1-2	33%	3-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USClast 4	4-0 100%	2-2 50%	2-1 67%
COLOlast 4	3-1 75%	2-2 50%	1-2 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USC+9.1 →+16.4▲ 7.3#9

COLO+3.1 →+3.6▲ 0.5#45

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

USC

Longer bar = better

COLO

Offense

◀ USC better

#57

#51

Defense

◀ USC better

#113

+1.0 #16

Turnovers

Even

+1.8 #4

62 plays #114

Pace

COLO faster ▶

72 plays #27

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USC has the ball

Advantage: USC offense

	USC off	COLO def	Edge
Points / game	55.0 #1	33.3 #118	USC
Yards / play	9.22 #2	6.30 #117	USC
PPA / play	+0.55 #2	+0.13 #92	USC
Success rate	58% #2	48% #124	USC

When COLO has the ball

Even matchup

	COLO off	USC def	Edge
Points / game	32.5 #51	20.0 #45	Even
Yards / play	5.68 #70	5.30 #61	Even
PPA / play	+0.21 #45	+0.08 #67	COLO
Success rate	43% #60	36% #30	USC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

USC scoring against the COLO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USC scored	15.8 #3	15.8 #3	31.5 #3	8.5 #37	15.0 #1	23.5 #2
COLO allowed	6.8 #101	10.8 #115	17.5 #116	7.0 #98	7.0 #80	14.0 #99

COLO scoring against the USC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
COLO scored	5.3 #75	5.8 #110	11.0 #104	6.0 #68	11.8 #7	17.8 #29
USC allowed	3.5 #46	5.8 #55	9.3 #50	3.8 #45	7.0 #80	10.8 #63

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.