USC @ Arizona State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sat, Sep 23, 2023, 10:45 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Arizona State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff87°F7 mphDryWeather watch ›

USC

3-0 · Power #23

▲ winner

Final

Arizona State

1-2 · Power #101

final

Closing spread

USC -34.5

✓ ASU W

Total

62.5

▲ Over · 70 pts

Model before kickoff

USC 45–13 ASU

✓ USC (99%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUSC -34.5

Total62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USC LWW	2-1	67%	—	2-1
ASU LLL	0-3	0%	0-3	0-2

Venue/role: USC away, as favorite; ASU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USC O–U	1-1	50%	3-0
ASU UUU	0-3	0%	1-2

Went over in Q4. Of 27 earlier overs in games with totals 58.5–66.5, 37% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USClast 3	3-0 100%	2-1 67%	1-1 50%
ASUlast 3	1-2 33%	0-3 0%	0-3 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USC+9.1 →+14.5▲ 5.4#10

ASU+0.4 →−8.1▼ 8.5#104

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

USC

Longer bar = better

ASU

Offense

◀ USC better

#130

#46

Defense

◀ USC better

#62

+1.0 #18

Turnovers

◀ USC better

−3.0 #136

62 plays #114

Pace

ASU faster ▶

64 plays #99

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USC has the ball

Advantage: USC offense

	USC off	ASU def	Edge
Points / game	59.3 #1	25.7 #82	USC
Yards / play	9.32 #2	4.51 #23	USC
PPA / play	+0.66 #1	+0.10 #79	USC
Success rate	60% #2	40% #65	USC

When ASU has the ball

Advantage: USC defense

	ASU off	USC def	Edge
Points / game	13.0 #134	17.3 #33	USC
Yards / play	4.57 #127	5.42 #72	USC
PPA / play	−0.10 #131	+0.03 #53	USC
Success rate	35% #129	35% #26	USC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

USC scoring against the ASU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USC scored	16.3 #3	18.7 #2	35.0 #1	9.3 #31	15.0 #1	24.3 #2
ASU allowed	3.3 #44	7.7 #79	11.0 #64	8.0 #111	6.7 #73	14.7 #106

ASU scoring against the USC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ASU scored	4.7 #92	7.3 #91	12.0 #88	0.0 #131	1.0 #131	1.0 #132
USC allowed	2.3 #25	5.7 #52	8.0 #35	2.3 #20	7.0 #79	9.3 #45

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.