Boise State @ San Diego State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Fri, Sep 22, 2023, 10:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at San Diego State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff69°F5 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Boise State

1-2 · Power #48

▲ winner

Final

San Diego State

2-2 · Power #112

final

Closing spread

BOIS -5

✓ SDSU W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

BOIS 27–23 SDSU

✓ BOIS (62%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBOIS -5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseBOIS -5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close47.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBOIS -5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BOIS as a 5-point road favorite at SDSU, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: BOIS won 34–31; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 65 points went over 47.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.4 against an average line of 4.1; 53.4 points a game (usually 54). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TOL @ SDSU 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-3	14–17	L	U44.5
Very close	TLSA @ NAVY 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-4.5	21–53	L	O45.75
Very close	USF @ TEM 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.5	28–54	L	O49
Very close	EMU @ BGSU 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-4	55–24	W	O49.5
Very close	NEB @ RUTG 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	14–13	L	U50.5
Very close	UL @ TXST 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-5	41–13	W	O44
Very close	FRES @ ASU 2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.75	29–0	W	U48
Very close	LIB @ ODU 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.5	38–24	W	O47.5
Very close	M-OH @ BGSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7	13–17	L	U45
Very close	LT @ RICE 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-4	31–35	L	O52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BOIS LWW	2-1	67%	0-1	1-0
SDSU WLLW	2-2	50%	1-2	1-1

Venue/role: BOIS away, as favorite; SDSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BOIS –UO	1-1	50%	1-2
SDSU –OUU	1-2	33%	2-2

Went over in Q4. Of 42 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 29% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BOISlast 3	1-2 33%	2-1 67%	1-1 50%
SDSUlast 4	2-2 50%	2-2 50%	1-2 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BOIS−9.9 →−4.7▲ 5.2#87

SDSU+1.0 →−9.3▼ 10.3#114

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

BOIS

Longer bar = better

SDSU

#80

Offense

◀ BOIS better

#97

#112

Defense

Even

#104

−0.7 #109

Turnovers

SDSU better ▶

+0.5 #47

70 plays #46

Pace

◀ BOIS faster

66 plays #76

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BOIS has the ball

Advantage: BOIS offense

	BOIS off	SDSU def	Edge
Points / game	25.7 #86	25.5 #87	Even
Yards / play	5.65 #79	6.02 #110	BOIS
PPA / play	+0.08 #90	+0.14 #100	Even
Success rate	43% #65	47% #119	BOIS

When SDSU has the ball

Even matchup

	SDSU off	BOIS def	Edge
Points / game	18.8 #117	30.7 #109	Even
Yards / play	4.91 #108	6.71 #126	Even
PPA / play	+0.06 #99	+0.15 #103	Even
Success rate	43% #64	46% #111	SDSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 130 FBS teams

BOIS scoring against the SDSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BOIS scored	6.7 #60	7.7 #87	14.3 #78	4.7 #93	6.7 #69	11.3 #87
SDSU allowed	4.0 #63	10.8 #110	14.8 #99	3.5 #52	7.3 #88	10.8 #72

SDSU scoring against the BOIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SDSU scored	5.0 #78	5.8 #105	10.8 #105	2.3 #123	5.8 #78	8.0 #110
BOIS allowed	1.0 #12	13.3 #123	14.3 #97	6.3 #86	10.0 #117	16.3 #111

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.