Nevada @ Texas State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sat, Sep 23, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Texas State

Weather at kickoff95°F12 mphgusts 24Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Nevada

0-3 · Power #132

final

Final

Texas State

2-1 · Power #73

▲ winner

Closing spread

TXST -17

✓ NEV W

Total

▼ Under · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

NEV 20–38 TXST

✓ TXST (90%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTXST -17

Total60

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTXST -17

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close60

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTXST -17

Total60

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TXST as a 17-point home favorite against NEV, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: TXST won 35–24; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 59 points stayed under 60, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 11.6 against an average line of 16.9; 56.8 points a game (usually 55.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	DUKE vs KU 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-16.25	52–33	W	O57.5
Close	LIB vs ULM 2020 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & rest	-17	40–7	W	U63.5
Close	SJSU vs UNLV 2020 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & total	-17	34–17	P	U61
Close	WMU vs NIU 2020 · Week 13 · close · similar spread	-18.5	30–27	L	U64.5
Close	NEV vs USU 2020 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & total	-17	34–9	W	U57.5
Loose	RICE vs CLT 2022 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & total	-15	23–56	L	O61.25
Loose	TLSA vs ECU 2020 · Week 9 · loose · similar spread & total	-17	34–30	L	O59.5
Loose	NEV vs UNLV 2021 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & total	-19	51–20	W	O58.25
Loose	SJSU vs HAW 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & total	-15.25	27–14	L	U58
Loose	UCF vs USF 2021 · Week 13 · loose · similar spread & rest	-17	17–13	L	U62

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NEV LLW	1-2	33%	0-1	1-2
TXST WWW	3-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: NEV away, as underdog; TXST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NEV –UU	0-2	0%	0-3
TXST –UO	1-1	50%	2-1

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 21. 36% of games with totals 56–64 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NEVlast 3	0-3 0%	1-2 33%	0-2 0%
TXSTlast 3	2-1 67%	3-0 100%	1-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NEV−18.4 →−19.6▼ 1.2#133

TXST+3.4 →−2.3▼ 5.7#72

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

NEV

Longer bar = better

TXST

#121

Offense

TXST better ▶

#25

#134

Defense

TXST better ▶

#74

−0.3 #94

Turnovers

TXST better ▶

+0.3 #52

65 plays #86

Pace

Even

65 plays #87

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NEV has the ball

Advantage: TXST defense

	NEV off	TXST def	Edge
Points / game	14.7 #131	28.3 #98	TXST
Yards / play	4.58 #127	5.33 #71	TXST
PPA / play	+0.02 #111	+0.05 #68	TXST
Success rate	37% #116	38% #57	TXST

When TXST has the ball

Advantage: TXST offense

	TXST off	NEV def	Edge
Points / game	44.0 #13	43.3 #131	TXST
Yards / play	7.05 #21	8.73 #136	TXST
PPA / play	+0.35 #18	+0.51 #136	TXST
Success rate	46% #49	54% #134	TXST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 131 FBS teams

NEV scoring against the TXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEV scored	3.3 #106	4.3 #117	7.7 #123	2.3 #118	4.7 #99	7.0 #121
TXST allowed	5.0 #82	9.3 #97	14.3 #94	8.3 #111	5.7 #60	14.0 #98

TXST scoring against the NEV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TXST scored	11.7 #11	19.7 #1	31.3 #3	4.7 #97	8.0 #46	12.7 #69
NEV allowed	14.0 #130	6.7 #63	20.7 #123	10.3 #124	12.3 #127	22.7 #129

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.