Nevada @ Fresno State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2023)

Sat, Sep 30, 2023, 10:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Fresno State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff67°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

Nevada

0-4 · Power #132

final

Final

Fresno State

4-0 · Power #71

▲ winner

Closing spread

FRES -25.5

✓ NEV W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 36 pts

Model before kickoff

NEV 14–40 FRES

✓ FRES (97%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseFRES -25.5

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseFRES -25.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close50.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseFRES -25.5

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FRES as a 25.5-point home favorite against NEV, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: FRES won 27–9; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 36 points stayed under 50.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 56%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 22.6 against an average line of 25.3; 49.4 points a game (usually 56.6). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FRES vs KENT 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-27.5	53–10	W	O47.5
Very close	APP vs GASO 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-24.5	27–3	L	U55
Close	FRES vs UNM 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar total & rest	-24	34–7	W	U51
Close	BSU vs UNM 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-27.5	37–0	W	U48
Close	LIB vs AKR 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-26.5	21–12	L	U53
Close	BYU vs USF 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-23.5	35–27	L	O54.5
Close	ORST vs COLO 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-23	42–9	W	O47.5
Close	MRSH vs MTSU 2020 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-23.5	42–14	W	O55.5
Close	LIB vs NMSU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar total & rest	-24	14–49	L	O50.5
Close	OKST vs KU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-29	55–3	W	O54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NEV LLWW	2-2	50%	1-1	2-2
FRES WLWW	3-1	75%	1-1	2-1

Venue/role: NEV away, as underdog; FRES home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NEV –UUU	0-3	0%	0-4
FRES –OUO	2-1	67%	4-0

Stayed under: it needed 31 in the 4th quarter and got 16. 56% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NEVlast 4	0-4 0%	2-2 50%	0-3 0%
FRESlast 4	4-0 100%	3-1 75%	2-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NEV−18.4 →−17.9▲ 0.5#132

FRES+4.2 →+5.7▲ 1.5#37

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

NEV

Longer bar = better

FRES

#115

Offense

FRES better ▶

#37

#134

Defense

FRES better ▶

#30

−0.3 #93

Turnovers

FRES better ▶

+2.0 #2

66 plays #81

Pace

FRES faster ▶

76 plays #10

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NEV has the ball

Advantage: FRES defense

	NEV off	FRES def	Edge
Points / game	17.0 #130	19.0 #36	FRES
Yards / play	4.70 #124	4.58 #19	FRES
PPA / play	+0.01 #115	−0.01 #37	FRES
Success rate	40% #92	36% #27	FRES

When FRES has the ball

Advantage: FRES offense

	FRES off	NEV def	Edge
Points / game	38.8 #15	41.3 #133	FRES
Yards / play	5.62 #74	8.72 #136	FRES
PPA / play	+0.28 #23	+0.35 #134	FRES
Success rate	47% #37	53% #134	FRES

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

NEV scoring against the FRES defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEV scored	5.0 #84	5.0 #119	10.0 #116	1.8 #131	5.3 #94	7.0 #126
FRES allowed	4.3 #57	4.3 #29	8.5 #33	5.3 #63	3.5 #20	8.8 #31

FRES scoring against the NEV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FRES scored	11.5 #13	9.3 #62	20.8 #17	9.8 #24	5.8 #85	15.5 #45
NEV allowed	10.5 #126	5.0 #39	15.5 #99	13.0 #133	12.8 #132	25.8 #133

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.