Fresno State @ Wyoming: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2023)

Sat, Oct 7, 2023, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Wyoming · Conference game

Weather at kickoff59°F5 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Fresno State

5-0 · Power #71

final

Final

Wyoming

4-1 · Power #74

▲ winner

Closing spread

FRES -4.5

✓ WYO W

Total

—

Model before kickoff

FRES 25–21 WYO

✗ FRES (62%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseFRES -4.5

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseFRES -4.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close—

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseFRES -4.5

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FRES as a 4.5-point road favorite at WYO, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 1 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: WYO won 24–19 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

1 of 1010%

Below normal · usually 47%

Overs below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 2 against an average line of 4.1; 42.8 points a game (usually 54.2).

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MRSH @ TROY 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.25	7–16	L	U51.5
Very close	UAB @ FAU 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-4.75	17–24	L	U45
Very close	MSU @ RUTG 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4	31–13	W	U50
Very close	APP @ UL 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & situation	-4.25	13–41	L	U57.5
Very close	UTSA @ LT 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	45–16	W	O59.5
Very close	ORST @ WSU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4	24–31	L	U59
Very close	UK @ SC 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & rest	-4.5	16–10	W	U49
Very close	AFA @ SDSU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2	13–3	W	U43.5
Very close	TOL @ CMU 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5	23–26	L	U53
Very close	UCLA @ STAN 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4	35–24	W	U60

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FRES WLWWL	3-2	60%	2-0	2-2
WYO WLWPL	2-2-1	50%	1-2-1	2-0

Venue/role: FRES away, as favorite; WYO home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FRES –OUOU	2-2	50%	5-0
WYO –UUUO	1-3	25%	4-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FRESlast 5	5-0 100%	3-2 60%	2-2 50%
WYOlast 5	4-1 80%	2-2-1 50%	1-3 25%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FRES+4.2 →+5.0▲ 0.8#39

WYO−2.7 →−4.2▼ 1.5#85

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

FRES

Longer bar = better

WYO

#37

Offense

◀ FRES better

#86

#17

Defense

◀ FRES better

#68

+1.6 #4

Turnovers

◀ FRES better

+0.4 #45

73 plays #21

Pace

◀ FRES faster

59 plays #127

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FRES has the ball

Advantage: FRES offense

	FRES off	WYO def	Edge
Points / game	36.4 #19	25.2 #69	FRES
Yards / play	5.84 #64	5.23 #48	Even
PPA / play	+0.25 #31	+0.09 #72	FRES
Success rate	47% #32	42% #81	FRES

When WYO has the ball

Advantage: FRES defense

	WYO off	FRES def	Edge
Points / game	26.6 #86	17.0 #20	FRES
Yards / play	5.46 #89	4.33 #9	FRES
PPA / play	+0.06 #97	−0.03 #23	FRES
Success rate	41% #73	34% #14	FRES

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

FRES scoring against the WYO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FRES scored	10.6 #13	8.8 #67	19.4 #22	9.0 #28	6.0 #84	15.0 #51
WYO allowed	6.4 #104	5.2 #33	11.6 #60	0.6 #4	10.4 #123	11.0 #58

WYO scoring against the FRES defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WYO scored	6.0 #69	5.4 #118	11.4 #107	7.4 #53	4.8 #104	12.2 #87
FRES allowed	3.4 #36	3.4 #7	6.8 #15	4.2 #41	4.6 #37	8.8 #31

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.