San José State @ Boise State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2023)

Sat, Oct 7, 2023, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Boise State · Conference game

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San José State

1-4 · Power #60

final

Final

Boise State

2-3 · Power #48

▲ winner

Closing spread

BOIS -8

Push

Total

—

Model before kickoff

SJSU 25–33 BOIS

✓ BOIS (72%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBOIS -8

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseBOIS -8

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close—

Line context

Home favorites of 6–10 since 2023: won 76%, covered 56% (49 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBOIS -8

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BOIS as an 8-point home favorite against SJSU, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: BOIS won 35–27; the favorite pushed, as in 0 of the 10 similar games.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.8 against an average line of 7.8; 46.4 points a game (usually 54.3).

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NCST vs GT 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-7	23–13	W	U61
Very close	UVA vs ODU 2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & season form	-8.25	16–14	L	U52.5
Very close	M-OH vs BUFF 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-7	45–18	W	O58
Very close	WMU vs CMU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-9	30–42	L	O64.5
Very close	LT vs CLT 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & season form	-7	42–32	W	O58.25
Very close	NU vs M-OH 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & season form	-7.5	14–17	L	U50
Very close	KENT vs BALL 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & spread	-7	20–27	L	U61.75
Close	CAL vs WSU 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-7.5	6–21	L	U52.5
Close	ECU vs USF 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & situation	-9.5	29–14	W	U55.5
Close	CMU vs EMU 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar spread	-8.5	31–10	W	U63.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SJSU WLWWL	3-2	60%	2-0	2-2
BOIS LWWLP	2-2-1	50%	2-0	1-1

Venue/role: SJSU away, as underdog; BOIS home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SJSU O–OUO	3-1	75%	1-4
BOIS –UOOO	3-1	75%	2-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SJSUlast 5	1-4 20%	3-2 60%	3-1 75%
BOISlast 5	2-3 40%	2-2-1 50%	3-1 75%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SJSU−9.4 →−5.6▲ 3.8#91

BOIS−9.9 →−1.5▲ 8.4#69

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

SJSU

Longer bar = better

BOIS

#77

Offense

BOIS better ▶

#56

#116

Defense

Even

#119

+0.6 #29

Turnovers

◀ SJSU better

0.0 #72

64 plays #96

Pace

BOIS faster ▶

68 plays #54

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SJSU has the ball

Advantage: SJSU offense

	SJSU off	BOIS def	Edge
Points / game	28.2 #76	31.6 #109	SJSU
Yards / play	5.57 #77	6.84 #133	SJSU
PPA / play	+0.10 #77	+0.21 #116	SJSU
Success rate	41% #76	46% #119	SJSU

When BOIS has the ball

Advantage: BOIS offense

	BOIS off	SJSU def	Edge
Points / game	28.6 #74	33.4 #115	BOIS
Yards / play	6.15 #52	5.86 #91	BOIS
PPA / play	+0.16 #58	+0.34 #134	BOIS
Success rate	45% #41	47% #125	BOIS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

SJSU scoring against the BOIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SJSU scored	4.6 #92	12.4 #16	17.0 #48	7.0 #57	4.2 #112	11.2 #97
BOIS allowed	2.0 #11	12.8 #127	14.8 #90	5.2 #58	11.6 #127	16.8 #118

BOIS scoring against the SJSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BOIS scored	4.6 #92	10.8 #30	15.4 #68	4.8 #95	8.4 #37	13.2 #74
SJSU allowed	3.4 #36	10.4 #111	13.8 #83	9.8 #125	9.8 #120	19.6 #129

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.