Colorado State @ Utah State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2023)

Sat, Oct 7, 2023, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Utah State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff67°F2 mphDryWeather watch ›

Colorado State

2-2 · Power #109

final

Final

Utah State

2-3 · Power #100

▲ winner

Closing spread

CSU -3

✓ USU W

Total

▲ Over · 68 pts

Model before kickoff

CSU 32–30 USU

✗ CSU (55%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCSU -3

Total62

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseCSU -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close62

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCSU -3

Total62

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CSU as a 3-point road favorite at USU, the favorite won 3, covered 2, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: USU won 44–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 68 points went over 62, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 3.6 against an average line of 2.8; 57.2 points a game (usually 54.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	M-OH @ EMU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	12–13	L	U58.5
Very close	BALL @ NIU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	29–30	L	U59.5
Very close	BALL @ CMU 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	45–20	W	O63
Very close	NIU @ OHIO 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	17–24	L	U65.5
Very close	TULN @ ECU 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	29–52	L	O64.5
Very close	MTSU @ LT 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	24–40	L	O63.5
Very close	GT @ DUKE 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-4.5	31–27	L	U60.5
Very close	NIU @ BUFF 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.75	33–27	W	O59
Very close	BUFF @ OHIO 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	24–45	L	O61
Very close	CSU @ USU 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	24–26	L	U58.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CSU LWWL	2-2	50%	2-0	0-1
USU WWLLL	2-3	40%	1-1	1-2

Venue/role: CSU away, as favorite; USU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CSU OOOU	3-1	75%	2-2
USU UOOOO	4-1	80%	2-3

Went over in Q4. Of 33 earlier overs in games with totals 58–66, 30% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CSUlast 4	2-2 50%	2-2 50%	3-1 75%
USUlast 5	2-3 40%	2-3 40%	4-1 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CSU−7.1 →−5.7▲ 1.4#94

USU−5.3 →−5.7▼ 0.4#93

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

CSU

Longer bar = better

USU

#49

Offense

Even

#45

#83

Defense

◀ CSU better

#109

−0.8 #114

Turnovers

USU better ▶

+0.2 #51

69 plays #44

Pace

◀ CSU faster

68 plays #62

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CSU has the ball

Advantage: CSU offense

	CSU off	USU def	Edge
Points / game	32.8 #45	33.8 #118	CSU
Yards / play	6.57 #31	5.73 #87	CSU
PPA / play	+0.12 #69	+0.16 #101	CSU
Success rate	44% #49	49% #131	CSU

When USU has the ball

Advantage: USU offense

	USU off	CSU def	Edge
Points / game	37.0 #16	34.0 #123	USU
Yards / play	6.33 #39	5.64 #77	USU
PPA / play	+0.14 #66	+0.07 #59	Even
Success rate	43% #60	42% #71	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

CSU scoring against the USU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CSU scored	10.3 #17	3.5 #130	13.8 #77	3.3 #121	14.0 #1	17.3 #27
USU allowed	13.4 #133	10.2 #109	23.6 #133	2.8 #18	7.4 #88	10.2 #48

USU scoring against the CSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USU scored	1.4 #132	15.6 #3	17.0 #48	11.0 #8	9.0 #23	20.0 #9
CSU allowed	8.5 #118	7.8 #75	16.3 #104	3.8 #37	10.3 #122	14.0 #93

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.