Utah State @ UConn: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2023)

Sat, Sep 30, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at UConn

Weather at kickoff60°F9 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

Utah State

1-3 · Power #100

▲ winner

Final

UConn

0-4 · Power #125

final

Closing spread

USU -4

✓ CONN W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 67 pts

Model before kickoff

USU 28–24 CONN

✓ USU (61%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUSU -4

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUSU -4

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close50.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUSU -4

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USU as a 4-point road favorite at CONN, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 9 went over the total.

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This game: USU won 34–33; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 67 points went over 50.5, as in 9 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 48%

Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 4 against an average line of 3.5; 69 points a game (usually 54.5). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LT @ RICE 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-4	31–35	L	O52.5
Very close	UNT @ USM 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & total	-5.25	38–14	W	O49
Very close	TLSA @ NAVY 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	21–53	L	O45.75
Very close	EMU @ BGSU 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-4	55–24	W	O49.5
Close	UTSA @ ARMY 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & season form	-2	41–38	W	O54
Close	FAU @ UTEP 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar total & spread	-3	21–24	L	U50.75
Close	LIB @ BUFF 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.75	55–27	W	O54
Close	ECU @ NAVY 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	38–35	L	O46.5
Close	USF @ TEM 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	28–54	L	O49
Close	OHIO @ M-OH 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar total & spread	-2.5	37–21	W	O52

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USU WWLL	2-2	50%	1-1	1-0
CONN WLLL	1-3	25%	1-2	1-2

Venue/role: USU away, as favorite; CONN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USU UOOO	3-1	75%	1-3
CONN –UUO	1-2	33%	0-4

Went over in Q4. Of 67 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 42% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USUlast 4	1-3 25%	2-2 50%	3-1 75%
CONNlast 4	0-4 0%	1-3 25%	1-2 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USU−5.3 →−5.3–#89

CONN−5.0 →−11.6▼ 6.6#121

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

USU

Longer bar = better

CONN

#50

Offense

◀ USU better

#134

#105

Defense

Even

#103

+0.5 #39

Turnovers

◀ USU better

−1.3 #125

71 plays #33

Pace

◀ USU faster

65 plays #86

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USU has the ball

Advantage: USU offense

	USU off	CONN def	Edge
Points / game	37.8 #25	31.0 #109	USU
Yards / play	6.11 #50	5.49 #74	USU
PPA / play	+0.13 #69	+0.19 #110	USU
Success rate	43% #56	47% #118	USU

When CONN has the ball

Advantage: USU defense

	CONN off	USU def	Edge
Points / game	13.0 #134	34.0 #120	Even
Yards / play	4.39 #132	5.62 #78	USU
PPA / play	−0.13 #135	+0.14 #93	USU
Success rate	32% #134	49% #128	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

USU scoring against the CONN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USU scored	1.8 #121	17.8 #2	19.5 #32	9.5 #25	8.8 #44	18.3 #24
CONN allowed	7.0 #106	13.5 #127	20.5 #124	8.8 #114	1.8 #4	10.5 #61

CONN scoring against the USU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CONN scored	2.5 #115	0.0 #133	2.5 #133	3.5 #114	7.0 #64	10.5 #95
USU allowed	15.0 #133	10.3 #106	25.3 #133	3.5 #34	5.3 #52	8.8 #33

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.