Hawai'i @ UNLV: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2023)

Sat, Sep 30, 2023, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at UNLV · Conference game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Hawai'i

2-3 · Power #123

final

Final

UNLV

3-1 · Power #68

▲ winner

Closing spread

UNLV -10.5

✓ UNLV W

Total

▲ Over · 64 pts

Model before kickoff

HAW 24–34 UNLV

✓ UNLV (78%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUNLV -10.5

Total58

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUNLV -10.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close58

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUNLV -10.5

Total58

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNLV as a 10.5-point home favorite against HAW, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UNLV won 44–20; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 64 points went over 58, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 76%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.5 against an average line of 10.5; 57.3 points a game (usually 55.2). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TROY vs MTSU 2020 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-11	17–20	L	U60.5
Very close	ECU vs USF 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-9.5	29–14	W	U55.5
Very close	WMU vs BALL 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & rest	-12.5	20–45	L	O57.5
Very close	MTSU vs FIU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-10.5	50–10	W	O55
Very close	BUFF vs AKR 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-12	23–22	L	U55
Very close	CCU vs ODU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & spread	-11.25	21–49	L	O58.5
Very close	UL vs BUFF 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & total	-10.5	45–38	L	O57.5
Very close	ODU vs CLT 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-8.5	56–34	W	O55.75
Very close	MEM vs NAVY 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-11	35–17	W	U55.5
Very close	AFA vs UNM 2020 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-8	28–0	W	U55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HAW WLPLL	1-3-1	25%	1-1	1-2
UNLV WWWW	4-0	100%	2-0	1-0

Venue/role: HAW away, as underdog; UNLV home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HAW OOUUU	2-3	40%	2-3
UNLV UUOO	2-2	50%	3-1

Went over in Q4. Of 53 earlier overs in games with totals 54–62, 38% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HAWlast 5	2-3 40%	1-3-1 25%	2-3 40%
UNLVlast 4	3-1 75%	4-0 100%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HAW−6.5 →−12.7▼ 6.2#126

UNLV−2.6 →−6.5▼ 3.9#94

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

HAW

Longer bar = better

UNLV

#114

Offense

UNLV better ▶

#72

#94

Defense

Even

#89

−0.8 #114

Turnovers

UNLV better ▶

+1.0 #21

67 plays #64

Pace

UNLV faster ▶

68 plays #50

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HAW has the ball

Advantage: UNLV defense

	HAW off	UNLV def	Edge
Points / game	22.6 #101	28.5 #97	Even
Yards / play	4.91 #118	6.02 #107	Even
PPA / play	+0.01 #114	+0.10 #74	UNLV
Success rate	37% #123	41% #79	UNLV

When UNLV has the ball

Advantage: UNLV offense

	UNLV off	HAW def	Edge
Points / game	34.0 #42	32.8 #117	UNLV
Yards / play	5.58 #84	6.02 #108	UNLV
PPA / play	+0.15 #63	+0.11 #77	Even
Success rate	39% #100	41% #74	HAW

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

HAW scoring against the UNLV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HAW scored	3.4 #111	6.0 #107	9.4 #120	2.8 #120	10.4 #11	13.2 #71
UNLV allowed	6.0 #87	7.0 #66	13.0 #81	7.0 #97	8.5 #102	15.5 #111

UNLV scoring against the HAW defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNLV scored	7.8 #42	10.3 #41	18.0 #42	6.8 #64	9.3 #29	16.0 #42
HAW allowed	11.8 #132	10.2 #105	22.0 #131	6.0 #81	4.8 #46	10.8 #62

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.