San Diego State @ Hawai'i: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2023)

Sat, Oct 14, 2023, 11:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Hawai'i · Conference game

Weather at kickoff82°F6 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

San Diego State

2-4 · Power #112

▲ winner

Final

Hawai'i

2-4 · Power #123

final

Closing spread

SDSU -6.5

✓ SDSU W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 75 pts

Model before kickoff

SDSU 28–23 HAW

✓ SDSU (65%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseSDSU -6.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseSDSU -6.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close53.5

Line context

Road favorites of 4.5–8.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 53% (45 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseSDSU -6.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SDSU as a 6.5-point road favorite at HAW, the favorite won 5, covered 2, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: SDSU won 41–34; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 75 points went over 53.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.7 against an average line of 6.1; 48.3 points a game (usually 54.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	GAST @ GASO 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & situation	-6	21–14	W	U55
Very close	TLSA @ USF 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & situation	-7	32–31	L	O55.75
Close	LT @ ODU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar total & situation	-4	20–23	L	U52.25
Close	OHIO @ BGSU 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & season form	-6.25	10–21	L	U48.5
Close	EMU @ AKR 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-6.25	34–28	L	O57.25
Close	M-OH @ OHIO 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & total	-7	33–35	L	O54.5
Close	LT @ RICE 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar total & situation	-4	31–35	L	O52.5
Close	WKU @ MTSU 2020 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & total	-7	20–17	L	U52.5
Close	ECU @ TEM 2020 · Week 12 · close · similar total & spread	-7	28–3	W	U53
Close	NEV @ HAW 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-6.25	16–31	L	U51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SDSU LLWWL	3-3	50%	1-1	1-1
HAW LPLLL	1-4-1	20%	0-2-1	1-3

Venue/role: SDSU away, as favorite; HAW home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SDSU OUUOO	3-2	60%	2-4
HAW OUUUO	3-3	50%	2-4

Went over in Q4. Of 95 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SDSUlast 6	2-4 33%	3-3 50%	3-2 60%
HAWlast 6	2-4 33%	1-4-1 20%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SDSU+1.0 →−9.3▼ 10.3#109

HAW−6.5 →−13.9▼ 7.4#127

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

SDSU

Longer bar = better

HAW

#90

Offense

◀ SDSU better

#114

#121

Defense

HAW better ▶

#102

−0.2 #79

Turnovers

◀ SDSU better

−1.0 #129

64 plays #103

Pace

HAW faster ▶

66 plays #80

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SDSU has the ball

Even matchup

	SDSU off	HAW def	Edge
Points / game	19.3 #121	34.7 #122	Even
Yards / play	5.14 #104	6.13 #109	Even
PPA / play	+0.09 #84	+0.18 #103	Even
Success rate	44% #49	42% #75	SDSU

When HAW has the ball

Even matchup

	HAW off	SDSU def	Edge
Points / game	22.2 #106	30.8 #106	Even
Yards / play	5.06 #112	6.37 #123	Even
PPA / play	+0.02 #114	+0.24 #125	Even
Success rate	37% #123	48% #130	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

SDSU scoring against the HAW defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SDSU scored	4.5 #98	7.2 #94	11.7 #105	1.5 #133	6.2 #83	7.7 #123
HAW allowed	11.0 #129	10.7 #115	21.7 #132	6.2 #79	6.8 #74	13.0 #81

HAW scoring against the SDSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HAW scored	2.8 #122	5.5 #116	8.3 #125	4.0 #112	9.8 #19	13.8 #62
SDSU allowed	2.7 #19	13.5 #131	16.2 #103	7.5 #99	7.2 #84	14.7 #99

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.