Nevada @ San Diego State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Sat, Oct 21, 2023, 9:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at San Diego State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff70°F9 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Nevada

0-6 · Power #132

▲ winner

Final

San Diego State

3-4 · Power #112

final

Closing spread

SDSU -11

✓ NEV W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 6 pts

Model before kickoff

NEV 19–30 SDSU

✗ SDSU (78%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSDSU -11

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseSDSU -11

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close48.5

Line context

Home favorites of 9–13 since 2023: won 93%, covered 45% (41 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSDSU -11

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SDSU as an 11-point home favorite against NEV, the favorite won 7, covered 3, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: NEV won 6–0 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 6 points stayed under 48.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 78%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.2 against an average line of 10.5; 44.4 points a game (usually 55.8). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CMU vs WMU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-10	10–12	L	U48.75
Very close	UNLV vs NEV 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & rest	-12.5	27–22	L	P49
Very close	NIU vs AKR 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & spread	-9.5	12–44	L	O52
Very close	MTSU vs USM 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & total	-12.5	35–10	W	U47.25
Very close	CMU vs AKR 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10.5	17–10	L	U44
Close	GASO vs TXST 2020 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-12	40–38	L	O49.5
Close	EMU vs MASS 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	19–17	L	U49.75
Close	TLSA vs NAVY 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-11	17–20	L	U46
Close	UTEP vs RICE 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-9	38–28	W	O47
Close	TEM vs MASS 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-10	28–0	W	U44

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NEV LWWWL	3-3	50%	2-1	3-3
SDSU LWWLW	4-3	57%	2-2	2-1

Venue/role: NEV away, as underdog; SDSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NEV UUUUO	1-4	20%	0-6
SDSU UUOOO	4-2	67%	3-4

Stayed under: it needed 43 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 56% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NEVlast 6	0-6 0%	3-3 50%	1-4 20%
SDSUlast 7	3-4 43%	4-3 57%	4-2 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NEV−18.4 →−17.2▲ 1.2#132

SDSU+1.0 →−9.4▼ 10.4#111

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

NEV

Longer bar = better

SDSU

#120

Offense

SDSU better ▶

#86

#133

Defense

Even

#123

−0.7 #117

Turnovers

SDSU better ▶

+0.3 #46

66 plays #79

Pace

◀ NEV faster

64 plays #96

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NEV has the ball

Even matchup

	NEV off	SDSU def	Edge
Points / game	17.3 #128	31.3 #113	Even
Yards / play	4.86 #119	6.54 #129	Even
PPA / play	+0.01 #115	+0.22 #123	Even
Success rate	38% #118	48% #128	Even

When SDSU has the ball

Advantage: SDSU offense

	SDSU off	NEV def	Edge
Points / game	22.4 #106	39.5 #133	SDSU
Yards / play	5.21 #100	8.15 #136	SDSU
PPA / play	+0.09 #84	+0.33 #133	SDSU
Success rate	44% #53	50% #131	SDSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

NEV scoring against the SDSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEV scored	4.5 #98	3.3 #130	7.8 #127	2.3 #128	7.2 #56	9.5 #118
SDSU allowed	2.3 #14	13.6 #132	15.9 #105	7.9 #112	7.6 #95	15.4 #105

SDSU scoring against the NEV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SDSU scored	5.3 #84	7.1 #89	12.4 #90	1.7 #133	8.3 #34	10.0 #110
NEV allowed	10.5 #128	6.8 #59	17.3 #116	11.3 #132	10.8 #127	22.2 #133

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.