Air Force @ Navy: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Sat, Oct 21, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Navy

Weather at kickoff63°F15 mphgusts 37Wet0.0 mmWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Air Force

6-0 · Power #52

▲ winner

Final

Navy

3-3 · Power #108

final

Closing spread

AFA -11

Push

Total

▼ Under · 23 pts

Model before kickoff

AFA 25–14 NAVY

✓ AFA (79%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseAFA -11

Total34

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseAFA -11

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close34

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseAFA -11

Total34

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like AFA as an 11-point road favorite at NAVY, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: AFA won 17–6; the favorite pushed, as in 0 of the 10 similar games. 23 points stayed under 34, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 78%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 18.4 against an average line of 11.3; 44.6 points a game (usually 55.8). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	SDSU @ SJSU 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & rest	-9.75	19–13	L	U41
Close	WISC @ NEB 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-10	15–14	L	U40.5
Close	ILL @ NU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest	-14.75	41–3	W	O38
Close	WISC @ RUTG 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-13	52–3	W	O37.5
Close	IOWA @ NU 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-11.75	17–12	L	U40.5
Loose	SDSU @ UNLV 2021 · Week 12 · loose · similar spread & rest	-11	28–20	L	O41
Loose	MINN @ NU 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & spread	-11.5	34–37	L	O39.5
Loose	APP @ GASO 2020 · Week 15 · loose · similar rest & spread	-9.5	34–26	L	O45
Loose	CLEM @ SC 2021 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & spread	-11.5	30–0	W	U42.5
Loose	ND @ PITT 2020 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & spread	-10	45–3	W	O43.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AFA LWWWL	3-3	50%	1-0	3-3
NAVY LWLLW	2-4	33%	0-3	1-1

Venue/role: AFA away, as favorite; NAVY home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
AFA UOOOO	4-2	67%	6-0
NAVY UOO–U	2-2	50%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AFAlast 6	6-0 100%	3-3 50%	4-2 67%
NAVYlast 6	3-3 50%	2-4 33%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

AFA+5.5 →+7.0▲ 1.5#29

NAVY−15.5 →−7.2▲ 8.3#100

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

AFA

Longer bar = better

NAVY

#15

Offense

◀ AFA better

#99

#34

Defense

◀ AFA better

#68

+0.3 #39

Turnovers

NAVY better ▶

+1.5 #3

64 plays #91

Pace

◀ AFA faster

62 plays #119

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When AFA has the ball

Advantage: AFA offense

	AFA off	NAVY def	Edge
Points / game	37.0 #17	23.0 #50	AFA
Yards / play	6.42 #36	5.56 #69	AFA
PPA / play	+0.40 #5	+0.07 #61	AFA
Success rate	56% #3	43% #90	AFA

When NAVY has the ball

Advantage: AFA defense

	NAVY off	AFA def	Edge
Points / game	20.3 #118	14.7 #10	AFA
Yards / play	5.45 #86	4.47 #15	AFA
PPA / play	+0.08 #87	+0.05 #50	AFA
Success rate	39% #105	41% #61	AFA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

AFA scoring against the NAVY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AFA scored	7.7 #38	12.0 #17	19.7 #15	8.2 #33	9.2 #25	17.3 #21
NAVY allowed	5.2 #67	7.3 #78	12.5 #68	3.5 #23	7.0 #80	10.5 #47

NAVY scoring against the AFA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NAVY scored	5.8 #73	4.8 #123	10.7 #111	4.0 #111	5.7 #92	9.7 #113
AFA allowed	3.3 #32	6.3 #47	9.7 #33	1.7 #6	3.3 #11	5.0 #6

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.