Navy @ Temple: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Sat, Nov 4, 2023, 2:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Temple · Conference game

Weather at kickoff57°F2 mphgusts 7DryWeather watch ›

Navy

3-4 · Power #108

final

Final

Temple

2-6 · Power #128

▲ winner

Closing spread

NAVY -6.5

✓ TEM W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 50 pts

Model before kickoff

NAVY 26–19 TEM

✗ NAVY (69%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNAVY -6.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseNAVY -6.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close46.5

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 58% (47 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNAVY -6.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NAVY as a 6.5-point road favorite at TEM, the favorite won 5, covered 2, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: TEM won 32–18 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 50 points went over 46.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.3 against an average line of 7; 46.7 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	WYO @ CSU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & season form	-8.5	14–13	L	U42.5
Close	WKU @ MTSU 2020 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-7	20–17	L	U52.5
Close	SDSU @ HAW 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-6	41–34	W	O52
Close	USM @ ARST 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar total & spread	-7	37–44	L	O46.5
Close	M-OH @ BGSU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & total	-7	13–17	L	U45
Close	CAL @ ARIZ 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar total & situation	-7	3–10	L	U47
Close	TROY @ TXST 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & total	-7.5	31–28	L	O48.5
Close	BUFF @ KENT 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total	-6.5	24–6	W	U44
Close	NEV @ HAW 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & season form	-6.25	16–31	L	U51.5
Close	M-OH @ OHIO 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-7	33–35	L	O54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NAVY WLLWP	2-4-1	33%	2-0	1-3
TEM LLLLL	1-7	13%	1-4	0-6

Venue/role: NAVY away, as favorite; TEM home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NAVY OO–UU	2-3	40%	3-4
TEM OO–UO	3-3	50%	2-6

Went over in Q4. Of 103 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–50.5, 29% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NAVYlast 7	3-4 43%	2-4-1 33%	2-3 40%
TEMlast 8	2-6 25%	1-7 13%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NAVY−15.5 →−7.1▲ 8.4#101

TEM+1.0 →−17.7▼ 18.7#132

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

NAVY

Longer bar = better

TEM

#121

Offense

Even

#109

#56

Defense

◀ NAVY better

#124

+1.1 #6

Turnovers

◀ NAVY better

−1.4 #133

62 plays #119

Pace

TEM faster ▶

71 plays #33

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NAVY has the ball

Even matchup

	NAVY off	TEM def	Edge
Points / game	18.3 #127	38.0 #132	Even
Yards / play	4.93 #118	6.45 #126	Even
PPA / play	+0.02 #110	+0.28 #132	NAVY
Success rate	37% #127	45% #107	Even

When TEM has the ball

Advantage: NAVY defense

	TEM off	NAVY def	Edge
Points / game	19.1 #122	22.1 #44	NAVY
Yards / play	4.92 #119	5.55 #67	NAVY
PPA / play	+0.03 #107	+0.05 #50	NAVY
Success rate	40% #88	41% #63	NAVY

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

NAVY scoring against the TEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NAVY scored	5.0 #88	4.1 #128	9.1 #121	3.4 #120	5.7 #93	9.1 #117
TEM allowed	8.8 #123	11.5 #125	20.3 #128	6.9 #95	10.9 #131	17.8 #127

TEM scoring against the NAVY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEM scored	4.8 #91	5.6 #114	10.4 #112	3.9 #113	4.9 #110	8.8 #121
NAVY allowed	4.4 #48	7.3 #71	11.7 #54	3.4 #21	7.0 #83	10.4 #44

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.