Temple @ South Florida: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Sat, Nov 11, 2023, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at South Florida · Conference game

Weather at kickoff87°F3 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Temple

3-6 · Power #128

final

Final

South Florida

4-5 · Power #95

▲ winner

Closing spread

USF -7

✓ TEM W

Total

▼ Under · 50 pts

Model before kickoff

TEM 28–35 USF

✓ USF (71%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUSF -7

Total70

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUSF -7

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close70

Line context

Home favorites of 6–8 since 2023: won 65%, covered 56% (51 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUSF -7

Total70

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USF as a 7-point home favorite against TEM, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: USF won 27–23; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 50 points stayed under 70, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 6.8 against an average line of 6.9; 57.6 points a game (usually 53.8). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UNT vs TEM 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	45–14	W	U68
Close	ARST vs USA 2020 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	31–38	L	O63.5
Close	UNT vs LT 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & total	-6.5	47–27	W	O68.25
Close	CMU vs BALL 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	16–17	L	U63.5
Close	LT vs UNT 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-10	24–17	L	U65.25
Close	USU vs HAW 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-4	51–31	W	O66
Close	MTSU vs CLT 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-10	24–14	P	U67
Close	EMU vs OHIO 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & rest	-6	26–34	L	U61.75
Close	KENT vs BALL 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-7	20–27	L	U61.75
Close	ARIZ vs ASU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & rest	-4	38–35	L	O66.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TEM LLLLW	2-7	22%	0-3	1-6
USF WLLWW	5-4	56%	2-2	0-3

Venue/role: TEM away, as underdog; USF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TEM O–UOO	4-3	57%	3-6
USF OOOUO	5-3	63%	4-5

Stayed under: it needed 34 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 41% of games with totals 66–74 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TEMlast 9	3-6 33%	2-7 22%	4-3 57%
USFlast 9	4-5 44%	5-4 56%	5-3 63%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TEM+1.0 →−16.3▼ 17.3#132

USF−3.1 →−8.9▼ 5.8#109

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

TEM

Longer bar = better

USF

#100

Offense

USF better ▶

#84

#119

Defense

Even

#113

−1.7 #136

Turnovers

USF better ▶

−0.3 #97

70 plays #39

Pace

USF faster ▶

81 plays #1

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TEM has the ball

Even matchup

	TEM off	USF def	Edge
Points / game	20.6 #115	37.0 #133	Even
Yards / play	5.16 #103	6.55 #132	TEM
PPA / play	+0.05 #102	+0.22 #126	TEM
Success rate	41% #81	41% #61	Even

When USF has the ball

Advantage: USF offense

	USF off	TEM def	Edge
Points / game	30.4 #51	35.8 #130	USF
Yards / play	5.62 #73	6.24 #124	USF
PPA / play	+0.04 #104	+0.25 #129	USF
Success rate	39% #108	44% #94	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

TEM scoring against the USF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEM scored	5.3 #79	5.8 #111	11.1 #101	3.4 #120	6.0 #88	9.4 #114
USF allowed	9.3 #127	9.9 #107	19.2 #126	8.8 #122	9.0 #107	17.8 #129

USF scoring against the TEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USF scored	7.7 #32	8.6 #60	16.2 #46	6.2 #66	8.0 #36	14.2 #49
TEM allowed	7.8 #112	10.2 #112	18.0 #119	7.0 #101	10.8 #132	17.8 #129

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.