South Florida @ UTSA: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Fri, Nov 17, 2023, 9:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at UTSA · Conference game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

South Florida

5-5 · Power #95

final

Final

UTSA

7-3 · Power #56

▲ winner

Closing spread

UTSA -14.5

✓ UTSA W

Total

66.5

▲ Over · 70 pts

Model before kickoff

USF 25–39 UTSA

✓ UTSA (85%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUTSA -14.5

Total66.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUTSA -14.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close66.5

Line context

Home favorites of 13.5–15.5 since 2023: won 85%, covered 50% (40 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUTSA -14.5

Total66.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UTSA as a 14.5-point home favorite against USF, the favorite won 8, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UTSA won 49–21; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 70 points went over 66.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 83%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.5 against an average line of 14.3; 70.1 points a game (usually 55.6). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UL vs ARST 2020 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-14.25	27–20	L	U68.25
Very close	BSU vs CSU 2020 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-14	52–21	W	O62.5
Very close	UTSA vs LT 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & season form	-17	51–7	W	U68.75
Very close	HOU vs TLSA 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & season form	-13	30–37	L	P67
Very close	MEM vs USF 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & spread	-13.5	59–50	L	O68.5
Very close	WMU vs EMU 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & spread	-13.5	42–53	L	O67.5
Very close	ARK vs MIZ 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-14.5	34–17	W	U63.25
Very close	GAST vs ARST 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & spread	-15.5	28–20	L	U66
Very close	MEM vs UNT 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & total	-12.75	44–34	L	O68.5
Very close	TLSA vs ARST 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & total	-14.5	41–34	L	O65

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USF LLWWL	5-5	50%	3-2	5-1
UTSA WWLPW	4-5-1	44%	2-3	4-4-1

Venue/role: USF away, as underdog; UTSA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USF OOUOU	5-4	56%	5-5
UTSA UUOUU	2-6-1	25%	7-3

Went over in Q4. Of 22 earlier overs in games with totals 62.5–70.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USF	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	5-4 56%
UTSA	7-3 70%	4-5-1 44%	2-6-1 25%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

USF 1–2 UTSA UTSA leads · 3 games since 2023 · UTSA has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USF−3.1 →−9.4▼ 6.3#110

UTSA+0.7 →+0.5▼ 0.2#60

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

USF

Longer bar = better

UTSA

#84

Offense

UTSA better ▶

#60

#105

Defense

UTSA better ▶

#46

0.0 #71

Turnovers

◀ USF better

−0.1 #85

81 plays #1

Pace

◀ USF faster

72 plays #20

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USF has the ball

Advantage: UTSA defense

	USF off	UTSA def	Edge
Points / game	30.1 #49	24.6 #58	Even
Yards / play	5.63 #75	5.09 #35	UTSA
PPA / play	+0.05 #104	+0.07 #49	UTSA
Success rate	39% #108	40% #43	UTSA

When UTSA has the ball

Advantage: UTSA offense

	UTSA off	USF def	Edge
Points / game	31.5 #39	35.6 #129	UTSA
Yards / play	5.65 #72	6.42 #128	UTSA
PPA / play	+0.14 #61	+0.18 #110	UTSA
Success rate	43% #66	41% #53	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

USF scoring against the UTSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USF scored	8.6 #17	8.0 #66	16.6 #38	6.3 #61	7.2 #61	13.5 #55
UTSA allowed	8.3 #120	7.2 #65	15.5 #101	2.4 #8	6.7 #73	9.1 #22

UTSA scoring against the USF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTSA scored	7.2 #42	9.9 #35	17.1 #32	7.8 #30	6.6 #74	14.4 #45
USF allowed	8.4 #121	9.9 #109	18.3 #123	7.9 #116	9.4 #119	17.3 #128

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.