Charlotte @ South Florida: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Sat, Nov 25, 2023, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at South Florida · Conference game

Weather at kickoff66°F10 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Charlotte

3-8 · Power #124

final

Final

South Florida

5-6 · Power #95

▲ winner

Closing spread

USF -7

✓ USF W

Total

▲ Over · 62 pts

Model before kickoff

CLT 24–31 USF

✓ USF (68%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUSF -7

Total57

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUSF -7

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close57

Line context

Home favorites of 6–8 since 2023: won 65%, covered 54% (63 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUSF -7

Total57

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USF as a 7-point home favorite against CLT, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: USF won 48–14; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 62 points went over 57, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.5 against an average line of 6.6; 58.1 points a game (usually 53.8). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	EMU vs NIU 2020 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	41–33	W	O55.5
Very close	EMU vs BUFF 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & spread	-6.5	31–50	L	O57.5
Very close	TULN vs USF 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & season form	-5.5	45–14	W	U59.5
Very close	CLT vs RICE 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	31–24	W	O52.25
Very close	LT vs CLT 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-7	42–32	W	O58.25
Very close	KENT vs BALL 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & season form	-7	20–27	L	U61.75
Very close	BALL vs BUFF 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-6	20–3	W	U59.5
Very close	KENT vs EMU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-7.5	24–31	L	U60
Very close	ARMY vs ULM 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	48–24	W	O55.5
Very close	WKU vs MTSU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & season form	-6.5	31–10	W	U60

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLT WLWWL	6-5	55%	5-0	6-3
USF LWWLL	5-6	45%	2-3	0-4

Venue/role: CLT away, as underdog; USF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLT UOOOU	5-6	45%	3-8
USF OUOUO	6-4	60%	5-6

Went over in Q4. Of 138 earlier overs in games with totals 53–61, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLT	2-8 20%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
USF	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CLT−0.6 →−11.7▼ 11.1#122

USF−3.1 →−10.3▼ 7.2#112

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

CLT

Longer bar = better

USF

#129

Offense

USF better ▶

#87

#65

Defense

◀ CLT better

#109

−0.3 #100

Turnovers

Even

−0.2 #93

66 plays #77

Pace

USF faster ▶

80 plays #1

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CLT has the ball

Even matchup

	CLT off	USF def	Edge
Points / game	17.8 #129	36.8 #132	Even
Yards / play	4.77 #123	6.51 #127	Even
PPA / play	−0.04 #130	+0.20 #116	Even
Success rate	35% #134	41% #61	USF

When USF has the ball

Advantage: CLT defense

	USF off	CLT def	Edge
Points / game	29.3 #58	26.8 #74	Even
Yards / play	5.61 #76	5.70 #79	Even
PPA / play	+0.05 #101	+0.10 #65	CLT
Success rate	38% #113	40% #42	CLT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

CLT scoring against the USF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLT scored	1.8 #133	6.1 #101	7.9 #130	4.5 #102	4.7 #116	9.3 #116
USF allowed	8.3 #119	10.9 #124	19.2 #123	8.5 #121	9.2 #116	17.6 #125

USF scoring against the CLT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USF scored	8.5 #22	7.9 #69	16.4 #42	6.4 #66	6.5 #77	12.9 #69
CLT allowed	6.3 #88	5.5 #29	11.8 #45	6.1 #76	8.4 #103	14.5 #101

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.