Iowa State @ Kansas State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Sat, Nov 25, 2023, 8:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Kansas State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff28°F5 mphgusts 10Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Iowa State

6-5 · Power #35

▲ winner

Final

Kansas State

8-3 · Power #11

final

Closing spread

KSU -9.5

✓ ISU W

Total

▲ Over · 77 pts

Model before kickoff

ISU 19–29 KSU

✗ KSU (78%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseKSU -9.5

Total47

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseKSU -9.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close47

Line context

Home favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 85%, covered 49% (48 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseKSU -9.5

Total47

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KSU as a 9.5-point home favorite against ISU, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: ISU won 42–35 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 77 points went over 47, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 13.2 against an average line of 10; 50.8 points a game (usually 54.7). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LOU vs VT 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-9.75	34–3	W	U48.5
Very close	NCST vs SYR 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-11.5	41–17	W	O49.5
Very close	TCU vs ISU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-9.5	62–14	W	O45.75
Very close	ISU vs OKST 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & rest	-7	24–21	L	U47
Very close	ORST vs CAL 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & situation	-11.5	38–10	W	O47
Very close	WASH vs UTAH 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-9.5	35–28	L	O49
Close	JMU vs MRSH 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total	-9.5	12–26	L	U48.5
Close	MIAMI vs PITT 2020 · Week 7 · close · similar total & rest	-12	31–19	P	O47
Close	TCU vs WVU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-12.5	21–24	L	U52
Close	TA&M vs MSST 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-7	22–26	L	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ISU WWLWL	6-5	55%	3-2	2-3
KSU WWPWL	7-3-1	70%	6-0	6-3

Venue/role: ISU away, as underdog; KSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ISU UOUOU	4-6	40%	6-5
KSU UUOOU	6-4	60%	8-3

Went over in Q3. Of 150 earlier overs in games with totals 43–51, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ISU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	4-5 44%
KSU	7-3 70%	6-3-1 67%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ISU−4.8 →+4.8▲ 9.6#38

KSU+2.0 →+16.0▲ 14.0#12

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

ISU

Longer bar = better

KSU

#87

Offense

KSU better ▶

#24

#29

Defense

Even

#29

+0.8 #11

Turnovers

Even

+0.8 #12

61 plays #127

Pace

KSU faster ▶

71 plays #22

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ISU has the ball

Advantage: KSU defense

	ISU off	KSU def	Edge
Points / game	24.8 #83	19.3 #22	KSU
Yards / play	5.70 #70	5.32 #51	Even
PPA / play	+0.11 #74	−0.02 #14	KSU
Success rate	37% #122	38% #30	KSU

When KSU has the ball

Even matchup

	KSU off	ISU def	Edge
Points / game	38.1 #10	20.5 #30	Even
Yards / play	6.18 #44	5.02 #26	Even
PPA / play	+0.23 #26	+0.03 #30	Even
Success rate	48% #15	38% #28	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

ISU scoring against the KSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ISU scored	6.2 #62	7.2 #81	13.4 #76	6.5 #62	4.9 #113	11.5 #89
KSU allowed	5.2 #64	6.7 #45	11.9 #48	3.9 #24	3.2 #4	7.1 #9

KSU scoring against the ISU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KSU scored	8.5 #21	12.2 #9	20.7 #10	8.9 #14	8.5 #28	17.4 #15
ISU allowed	4.7 #49	6.3 #38	11.0 #37	4.9 #47	4.5 #22	9.5 #27

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.