TCU @ Oklahoma: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Fri, Nov 24, 2023, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Oklahoma · Conference game

Weather at kickoff46°F9 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

TCU

5-6 · Power #30

final

Final

Oklahoma

9-2 · Power #9

▲ winner

Closing spread

OU -10.5

✓ OU W

Total

65.5

▲ Over · 114 pts

Model before kickoff

TCU 25–37 OU

✓ OU (79%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseOU -10.5

Total65.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseOU -10.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close65.5

Line context

Home favorites of 8.5–12.5 since 2023: won 84%, covered 45% (64 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseOU -10.5

Total65.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OU as a 10.5-point home favorite against TCU, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: OU won 69–45; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 114 points went over 65.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 77%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 14.5 against an average line of 11.5; 65.9 points a game (usually 54.9). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CIN vs SMU 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & situation	-9.75	48–14	W	U65.5
Very close	USC vs WSU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & rest	-12.5	30–14	W	U64.5
Very close	OU vs TCU 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & rest	-12.5	52–31	W	O64.5
Very close	OKST vs TTU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & spread	-11.5	41–31	L	O65.5
Very close	TENN vs SC 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-12.5	41–20	W	U63
Very close	MISS vs ARK 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar season form & rest	-13	27–20	L	U62
Very close	PITT vs UVA 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar season form & situation	-13	48–38	L	O67.5
Very close	TCU vs TTU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-8.5	34–24	W	U68.75
Very close	KSU vs KU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-12	47–27	W	O62
Very close	PITT vs MIA 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-9.5	34–38	L	O61

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TCU WLLWW	5-6	45%	1-3	1-2
OU LLLWL	7-4	64%	4-1	6-4

Venue/role: TCU away, as underdog; OU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TCU OUOUU	2-7	22%	5-6
OU UOUOU	4-5	44%	9-2

Went over in Q3. Of 34 earlier overs in games with totals 61.5–69.5, 24% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TCU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	2-7 22%
OU	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TCU−3.1 →+6.8▲ 9.9#29

OU+20.5 →+18.0▼ 2.5#7

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

TCU

Longer bar = better

#33

Offense

OU better ▶

#12

#71

Defense

OU better ▶

#34

−0.7 #126

Turnovers

OU better ▶

+1.1 #6

75 plays #6

Pace

Even

74 plays #8

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TCU has the ball

Even matchup

	TCU off	OU def	Edge
Points / game	30.1 #48	20.2 #31	Even
Yards / play	6.18 #42	5.31 #48	Even
PPA / play	+0.22 #28	+0.01 #23	Even
Success rate	48% #15	39% #33	Even

When OU has the ball

Advantage: OU offense

	OU off	TCU def	Edge
Points / game	40.8 #4	24.1 #57	OU
Yards / play	6.64 #18	5.45 #62	OU
PPA / play	+0.27 #16	+0.13 #83	OU
Success rate	51% #8	43% #81	OU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

TCU scoring against the OU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TCU scored	5.9 #70	8.7 #54	14.6 #65	6.7 #55	8.7 #22	15.5 #31
OU allowed	4.6 #43	8.0 #75	12.6 #64	3.4 #15	4.2 #17	7.5 #10

OU scoring against the TCU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OU scored	12.1 #3	12.2 #10	24.3 #4	8.8 #15	7.7 #40	16.5 #20
TCU allowed	6.3 #87	8.1 #82	14.4 #88	5.7 #69	4.0 #12	9.7 #30

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.