Texas Tech @ Texas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Fri, Nov 24, 2023, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Texas · Conference game

Weather at kickoff54°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

Texas Tech

6-5 · Power #45

final

Final

Texas

10-1 · Power #8

▲ winner

Closing spread

TEX -15.5

✓ TEX W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 64 pts

Model before kickoff

TTU 19–35 TEX

✓ TEX (87%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTEX -15.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTEX -15.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close53.5

Line context

Home favorites of 13.5–17.5 since 2023: won 91%, covered 49% (78 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTEX -15.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TEX as a 15.5-point home favorite against TTU, the favorite won 9, covered 2, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: TEX won 57–7; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 64 points went over 53.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 84%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.2 against an average line of 14.3; 59.4 points a game (usually 55.4). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CLEM vs SC 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & season form	-14	30–31	L	O53
Very close	CLEM vs GT 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-15.5	42–21	W	O55
Very close	FLA vs SC 2020 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-14.5	38–24	L	O57
Very close	FSU vs MIA 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-14.5	27–20	L	U50.5
Very close	BAY vs TTU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-14	27–24	L	U51.5
Very close	LSU vs UAB 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-15.25	41–10	W	O50.5
Very close	MIAMI vs UVA 2020 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & rest	-13.5	19–14	L	U54
Very close	PUR vs NEB 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-14	43–37	L	O56
Very close	MISS vs AUB 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-15.5	48–34	L	O55
Very close	MIZ vs FLA 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-12.5	33–31	L	O56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TTU LLWWL	5-6	45%	2-3	2-1
TEX LWPLW	5-5-1	50%	2-2-1	4-5-1

Venue/role: TTU away, as underdog; TEX home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TTU OUOUU	3-6	33%	6-5
TEX UUOUU	2-8	20%	10-1

Went over in Q3. Of 147 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 31% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TTU	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	3-6 33%
TEX	9-1 90%	5-4-1 56%	2-7 22%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

TTU 18–55 TEX TEX leads · 73 games since 1928 · TEX has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TTU+2.7 →+4.4▲ 1.7#39

TEX+8.6 →+16.1▲ 7.5#11

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

TTU

Longer bar = better

TEX

#70

Offense

TEX better ▶

#36

#60

Defense

TEX better ▶

#25

−0.5 #121

Turnovers

TEX better ▶

+0.4 #37

73 plays #15

Pace

◀ TTU faster

70 plays #37

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TTU has the ball

Advantage: TEX defense

	TTU off	TEX def	Edge
Points / game	28.6 #61	18.2 #16	TEX
Yards / play	5.56 #79	5.22 #40	TEX
PPA / play	+0.09 #81	+0.02 #29	TEX
Success rate	43% #57	36% #15	TEX

When TEX has the ball

Advantage: TEX offense

	TEX off	TTU def	Edge
Points / game	33.1 #30	24.3 #58	TEX
Yards / play	6.50 #24	5.37 #57	TEX
PPA / play	+0.19 #41	+0.10 #69	TEX
Success rate	44% #48	41% #56	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

TTU scoring against the TEX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TTU scored	7.8 #30	8.0 #64	15.8 #49	5.7 #76	5.9 #93	11.6 #84
TEX allowed	2.6 #11	4.8 #16	7.5 #6	4.5 #40	6.2 #64	10.7 #40

TEX scoring against the TTU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEX scored	7.5 #36	9.6 #40	17.1 #33	6.3 #67	9.5 #14	15.7 #31
TTU allowed	7.4 #107	4.8 #16	12.2 #59	3.5 #16	7.3 #89	10.7 #40

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.