Texas @ Iowa State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sat, Nov 18, 2023, 8:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Iowa State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff51°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Texas

9-1 · Power #8

▲ winner

Final

Iowa State

6-4 · Power #35

final

Closing spread

TEX -7

✓ TEX W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 42 pts

Model before kickoff

TEX 27–20 ISU

✓ TEX (71%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTEX -7

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTEX -7

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close44.5

Line context

Road favorites of 6–8 since 2023: won 65%, covered 54% (55 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTEX -7

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TEX as a 7-point road favorite at ISU, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TEX won 26–16; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 42 points stayed under 44.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.2 against an average line of 7.4; 48.6 points a game (usually 53.9). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	AUB @ SC 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7	17–21	L	U45.25
Very close	ISU @ WVU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	31–38	L	O49
Very close	MIA @ NCSU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & rest	-6	6–20	L	U44
Very close	TA&M @ LSU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6.25	24–27	L	O46.75
Very close	ORE @ WASH 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7	26–16	W	U48
Very close	ASU @ WASH 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-6	35–30	L	O45.5
Very close	ND @ PITT 2020 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-10	45–3	W	O43.5
Very close	WISC @ MINN 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7	13–23	L	U39
Very close	ALA @ UK 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-10.5	49–21	W	O46.25
Very close	FSU @ SYR 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7	38–3	W	U51.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TEX LLWPL	4-5-1	44%	2-2	3-5-1
ISU WWWLW	6-4	60%	3-2	2-2

Venue/role: TEX away, as favorite; ISU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TEX –UUOU	2-7	22%	9-1
ISU –UOUO	4-5	44%	6-4

Stayed under: it needed 21 in the 4th quarter and got 18. 52% of games with totals 40.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TEX	9-1 90%	4-5-1 44%	2-7 22%
ISU	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TEX+8.6 →+16.2▲ 7.6#12

ISU−4.8 →+4.7▲ 9.5#38

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

TEX

Longer bar = better

ISU

#35

Offense

◀ TEX better

#89

#23

Defense

Even

#26

+0.4 #31

Turnovers

ISU better ▶

+0.9 #13

70 plays #36

Pace

◀ TEX faster

62 plays #123

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TEX has the ball

Even matchup

	TEX off	ISU def	Edge
Points / game	33.8 #26	19.9 #28	Even
Yards / play	6.54 #22	4.92 #24	Even
PPA / play	+0.20 #41	+0.02 #28	Even
Success rate	44% #51	37% #25	ISU

When ISU has the ball

Advantage: TEX defense

	ISU off	TEX def	Edge
Points / game	25.7 #79	18.4 #18	TEX
Yards / play	5.66 #75	5.13 #31	TEX
PPA / play	+0.12 #75	+0.02 #26	TEX
Success rate	37% #125	36% #15	TEX

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

TEX scoring against the ISU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEX scored	8.2 #24	10.0 #32	18.2 #22	6.0 #68	9.3 #16	15.3 #34
ISU allowed	5.2 #65	6.3 #39	11.5 #45	4.5 #44	3.9 #11	8.4 #18

ISU scoring against the TEX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ISU scored	6.5 #56	7.9 #69	14.4 #72	6.6 #59	4.7 #114	11.3 #96
TEX allowed	2.6 #13	5.3 #26	7.9 #8	4.4 #41	6.1 #62	10.5 #40

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.