Iowa State @ BYU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Sat, Nov 11, 2023, 10:15 PM ESTWeek 11 · at BYU · Conference game

Weather at kickoff43°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Iowa State

5-4 · Power #35

▲ winner

Final

BYU

5-4 · Power #86

final

Closing spread

ISU -7.5

✓ ISU W

Total

▲ Over · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

ISU 24–18 BYU

✓ ISU (68%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseISU -7.5

Total41

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseISU -7.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close41

Line context

Road favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 55% (45 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseISU -7.5

Total41

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ISU as a 7.5-point road favorite at BYU, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ISU won 45–13; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 58 points went over 41, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

7 of 978%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 14.4 against an average line of 6.8; 38.6 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WASH @ COLO 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	17–20	L	U43
Very close	MINN @ IU 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	35–14	W	O43.25
Very close	PITT @ UVA 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & situation	-5.5	37–7	W	O41.5
Very close	MINN @ NU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	41–14	W	O43.5
Very close	RUTG @ IU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-6	31–14	W	O39.5
Very close	TROY @ ARMY 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-6.5	19–0	W	U42
Very close	UK @ MSST 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	24–3	W	U44.5
Very close	FAU @ FIU 2020 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & total	-9.5	38–19	W	O42
Very close	SDSU @ HAW 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	17–10	P	U45.25
Close	MIA @ NCSU 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-6	6–20	L	U44

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ISU LWWWL	5-4	56%	2-2	3-2
BYU WLWLL	3-6	33%	2-2	2-4

Venue/role: ISU away, as favorite; BYU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ISU O–UOU	3-5	38%	5-4
BYU OOUUU	5-3	63%	5-4

Went over in Q3. Of 53 earlier overs in games with totals 37–45, 30% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ISUlast 9	5-4 56%	5-4 56%	3-5 38%
BYUlast 9	5-4 56%	3-6 33%	5-3 63%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

ISU 5–2 BYU ISU leads · 7 games since 1968 · BYU has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ISU−4.8 →+2.8▲ 7.6#48

BYU+3.3 →−4.0▼ 7.3#85

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

ISU

Longer bar = better

BYU

#100

Offense

◀ ISU better

#120

#28

Defense

◀ ISU better

#86

+0.7 #22

Turnovers

Even

+0.8 #17

61 plays #120

Pace

Even

62 plays #116

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ISU has the ball

Even matchup

	ISU off	BYU def	Edge
Points / game	23.6 #93	26.9 #80	Even
Yards / play	5.49 #81	5.84 #89	Even
PPA / play	+0.07 #93	+0.13 #86	Even
Success rate	36% #131	43% #90	BYU

When BYU has the ball

Advantage: ISU defense

	BYU off	ISU def	Edge
Points / game	22.9 #102	20.7 #32	ISU
Yards / play	4.82 #125	4.93 #24	ISU
PPA / play	−0.01 #119	+0.03 #30	ISU
Success rate	35% #133	37% #24	ISU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

ISU scoring against the BYU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ISU scored	5.3 #81	7.2 #80	12.6 #83	5.8 #76	5.2 #107	11.0 #100
BYU allowed	8.1 #119	7.1 #66	15.2 #100	6.4 #86	5.2 #40	11.7 #59

BYU scoring against the ISU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BYU scored	6.1 #66	7.3 #79	13.4 #76	4.8 #100	4.7 #116	9.4 #118
ISU allowed	5.0 #55	7.0 #60	12.0 #53	4.3 #40	4.3 #19	8.7 #21

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.