Baylor @ Kansas State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Sat, Nov 11, 2023, 3:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Kansas State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff48°F7 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Baylor

3-6 · Power #93

final

Final

Kansas State

6-3 · Power #11

▲ winner

Closing spread

KSU -21

✓ KSU W

Total

▲ Over · 84 pts

Model before kickoff

BAY 16–38 KSU

✓ KSU (94%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseKSU -21

Total55

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseKSU -21

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close55

Line context

Home favorites of 19–23 since 2023: won 93%, covered 42% (43 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseKSU -21

Total55

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KSU as a 21-point home favorite against BAY, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: KSU won 59–25; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 84 points went over 55, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

2 of 922%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 20.5 against an average line of 21.3; 51.3 points a game (usually 55.3). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SMU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & spread	-20.5	69–10	W	O55
Very close	MICH vs IU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-20.5	29–7	W	U51
Very close	CIN vs TLSA 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & rest	-22.5	28–20	L	U56
Very close	PSU vs MSU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & situation	-19	35–16	P	U54.5
Very close	UTAH vs STAN 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-24	42–7	W	U54
Very close	UTAH vs COLO 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-24	28–13	L	U52.5
Very close	ND vs FSU 2020 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & total	-20.5	42–26	L	O53.5
Very close	UCF vs GT 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & rest	-21	27–10	L	U56.5
Very close	ASU vs ARIZ 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-20	38–15	W	P53
Very close	ASU vs EMU 2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & spread	-20.5	21–30	L	U56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BAY WLWLL	2-6-1	25%	2-0	2-2-1
KSU LWWWP	6-2-1	75%	5-0	5-2

Venue/role: BAY away, as underdog; KSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BAY O–OOU	3-4	43%	3-6
KSU –OUUO	5-3	63%	6-3

Went over in Q3. Of 118 earlier overs in games with totals 51–59, 31% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BAYlast 9	3-6 33%	2-6-1 25%	3-4 43%
KSUlast 9	6-3 67%	6-2-1 75%	5-3 63%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BAY−3.4 →−4.1▼ 0.7#88

KSU+2.0 →+15.9▲ 13.9#12

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

BAY

Longer bar = better

KSU

#96

Offense

KSU better ▶

#28

#106

Defense

KSU better ▶

#27

+0.4 #37

Turnovers

Even

+0.3 #46

72 plays #26

Pace

Even

73 plays #20

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BAY has the ball

Advantage: KSU defense

	BAY off	KSU def	Edge
Points / game	22.7 #102	17.8 #19	KSU
Yards / play	5.46 #85	5.34 #52	KSU
PPA / play	+0.06 #94	−0.03 #15	KSU
Success rate	39% #102	37% #22	KSU

When KSU has the ball

Advantage: KSU offense

	KSU off	BAY def	Edge
Points / game	36.6 #17	29.4 #104	KSU
Yards / play	6.23 #41	6.22 #120	KSU
PPA / play	+0.22 #33	+0.19 #113	KSU
Success rate	48% #20	43% #88	KSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

BAY scoring against the KSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAY scored	2.9 #121	6.1 #105	9.0 #119	5.1 #90	7.8 #42	12.9 #71
KSU allowed	4.8 #50	6.1 #40	10.9 #42	3.3 #17	3.2 #7	6.6 #5

KSU scoring against the BAY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KSU scored	7.3 #40	12.3 #13	19.7 #15	8.1 #25	8.8 #28	16.9 #19
BAY allowed	6.2 #94	10.3 #115	16.6 #112	5.2 #57	6.8 #76	12.0 #65

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.