Texas Tech @ Kansas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Sat, Nov 11, 2023, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Kansas · Conference game

Weather at kickoff48°F6 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Texas Tech

4-5 · Power #45

▲ winner

Final

Kansas

7-2 · Power #24

final

Closing spread

KU -4

✓ TTU W

Total

62.5

▼ Under · 29 pts

Model before kickoff

TTU 29–33 KU

✗ KU (61%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseKU -4

Total62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseKU -4

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close62.5

Line context

Home favorites of 3–5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 48% (66 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseKU -4

Total62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KU as a 4-point home favorite against TTU, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: TTU won 16–13 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 29 points stayed under 62.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.5 against an average line of 4.3; 72.3 points a game (usually 54.2). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FRES vs BSU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-4	14–40	L	U61
Very close	SMU vs HOU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	77–63	W	O66
Very close	ECU vs MEM 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & season form	-5.5	47–45	L	O62.5
Very close	TTU vs KU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	43–28	W	O63.5
Very close	VT vs UVA 2020 · Week 15 · very close · similar situation & total	-3	33–15	W	U64
Very close	MIA vs UVA 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	28–30	L	U63.5
Very close	MISS vs MSST 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & situation	-2.5	22–24	L	U63
Very close	FRES vs NEV 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	34–32	L	O64.5
Very close	SMU vs UCF 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & total	-7	55–28	W	O61.5
Very close	SMU vs TLSA 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & situation	-6.5	31–34	L	O62.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TTU WWLLW	4-5	44%	1-3	1-1
KU LWLWW	5-4	56%	4-1	3-3

Venue/role: TTU away, as underdog; KU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TTU O–OUO	3-4	43%	4-5
KU U–OOU	4-4	50%	7-2

Stayed under: it needed 50 in the 4th quarter and got 16. 43% of games with totals 58.5–66.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TTUlast 9	4-5 44%	4-5 44%	3-4 43%
KUlast 9	7-2 78%	5-4 56%	4-4 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TTU+2.7 →+4.7▲ 2.0#40

KU+2.0 →+6.1▲ 4.1#33

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

TTU

Longer bar = better

#68

Offense

KU better ▶

#14

#57

Defense

◀ TTU better

#100

−0.7 #127

Turnovers

KU better ▶

+0.3 #41

74 plays #13

Pace

◀ TTU faster

63 plays #113

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TTU has the ball

Advantage: TTU offense

	TTU off	KU def	Edge
Points / game	30.6 #50	27.3 #83	TTU
Yards / play	5.53 #79	5.99 #104	TTU
PPA / play	+0.10 #80	+0.16 #99	Even
Success rate	42% #63	45% #114	TTU

When KU has the ball

Advantage: KU offense

	KU off	TTU def	Edge
Points / game	34.9 #21	25.7 #71	KU
Yards / play	6.91 #11	5.26 #46	KU
PPA / play	+0.31 #9	+0.07 #55	KU
Success rate	49% #13	41% #54	KU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

TTU scoring against the KU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TTU scored	8.4 #21	8.2 #67	16.7 #37	5.9 #75	6.6 #73	12.4 #77
KU allowed	4.6 #48	7.1 #65	11.7 #52	6.2 #80	9.4 #116	15.7 #109

KU scoring against the TTU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KU scored	7.3 #39	10.0 #33	17.3 #33	9.7 #11	7.9 #40	17.6 #14
TTU allowed	7.4 #110	5.9 #33	13.3 #74	4.2 #34	6.4 #69	10.7 #44

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.