Oklahoma State @ UCF: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Sat, Nov 11, 2023, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 11 · at UCF · Conference game

Weather at kickoff80°F9 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Oklahoma State

7-2 · Power #43

final

Final

UCF

4-5 · Power #31

▲ winner

Closing spread

OKST -2

✓ UCF W

Total

▼ Under · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

OKST 30–28 UCF

✗ OKST (55%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseOKST -2

Total64

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseOKST -2

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close64

Line context

Road favorites of 1–3 since 2023: won 53%, covered 49% (43 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseOKST -2

Total64

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OKST as a 2-point road favorite at UCF, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: UCF won 45–3 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 48 points stayed under 64, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 850%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 2.4 against an average line of 2.7; 70.8 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UCF @ KU 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & total	-2	22–51	L	O64.5
Very close	APP @ CCU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & total	-3	28–35	L	U65.25
Very close	MIA @ FSU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	28–31	L	U61.25
Very close	KSU @ TTU 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-1	25–24	P	U60.5
Very close	OU @ TTU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	48–51	L	O65.5
Very close	TCU @ TTU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	52–31	W	O60.5
Very close	UCLA @ USC 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	62–33	W	O65.5
Very close	VT @ LOU 2020 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & season form	-4	42–35	W	O67.5
Very close	USC @ UCLA 2020 · Week 15 · very close · similar total & situation	-3.5	43–38	W	O65
Very close	ARK @ LSU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	16–13	P	U59.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OKST WWWWW	6-3	67%	2-1	2-2
UCF LLWLL	3-6	33%	2-2	1-2

Venue/role: OKST away, as favorite; UCF home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OKST –OOOU	4-4	50%	7-2
UCF O–UOU	4-3	57%	4-5

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 43% of games with totals 60–68 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OKSTlast 9	7-2 78%	6-3 67%	4-4 50%
UCFlast 9	4-5 44%	3-6 33%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

OKST 1–2 UCF UCF leads · 3 games since 2023 · OKST has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OKST−1.5 →+6.1▲ 7.6#32

UCF+15.6 →+3.3▼ 12.3#47

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

OKST

Longer bar = better

UCF

#56

Offense

UCF better ▶

#24

#71

Defense

◀ OKST better

#103

+0.6 #29

Turnovers

◀ OKST better

−0.6 #116

73 plays #21

Pace

◀ OKST faster

68 plays #52

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OKST has the ball

Advantage: OKST offense

	OKST off	UCF def	Edge
Points / game	30.7 #49	29.4 #103	OKST
Yards / play	5.98 #55	5.86 #90	OKST
PPA / play	+0.17 #52	+0.15 #93	OKST
Success rate	42% #69	47% #127	OKST

When UCF has the ball

Advantage: UCF offense

	UCF off	OKST def	Edge
Points / game	32.8 #32	24.3 #61	UCF
Yards / play	7.07 #7	6.16 #115	UCF
PPA / play	+0.24 #23	+0.09 #64	UCF
Success rate	46% #34	39% #45	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

OKST scoring against the UCF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OKST scored	7.2 #42	6.6 #96	13.8 #73	5.2 #89	11.7 #1	16.9 #20
UCF allowed	5.2 #63	6.9 #59	12.1 #60	4.8 #48	12.6 #133	17.3 #129

UCF scoring against the OKST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCF scored	8.8 #15	9.1 #44	17.9 #24	7.0 #46	7.9 #39	14.9 #42
OKST allowed	5.0 #54	9.2 #97	14.2 #89	4.8 #48	5.3 #43	10.1 #36

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.