Oklahoma State @ Houston: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sat, Nov 18, 2023, 4:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Houston · Conference game

Weather at kickoff74°F5 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Oklahoma State

7-3 · Power #43

▲ winner

Final

Houston

4-6 · Power #88

final

Closing spread

OKST -6.5

✓ OKST W

Total

57.5

▲ Over · 73 pts

Model before kickoff

OKST 31–24 HOU

✓ OKST (68%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseOKST -6.5

Total57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseOKST -6.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close57.5

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 57% (55 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseOKST -6.5

Total57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OKST as a 6.5-point road favorite at HOU, the favorite won 9, covered 8, and 6 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: OKST won 43–30; the favorite covered, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 73 points went over 57.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16.9 against an average line of 7.2; 57.9 points a game (usually 54). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BYU @ STAN 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-6.5	35–26	W	O57.5
Very close	BOIS @ CSU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	30–31	L	O60
Very close	ASU @ ARIZ 2020 · Week 15 · very close · similar situation & total	-9	70–7	W	O56.5
Very close	WMU @ NIU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-7	42–21	W	O58.5
Very close	TOL @ NIU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	52–32	W	O59
Very close	PITT @ GT 2020 · Week 15 · very close · similar situation & spread	-7.5	34–20	W	U55.5
Very close	ORST @ STAN 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-4.5	28–27	L	O53.25
Very close	ORST @ ASU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	31–7	W	U53.5
Very close	COLO @ ARIZ 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & rest	-9.5	24–13	W	U57
Very close	NEB @ RUTG 2020 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	28–21	W	U52

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OKST WWWWL	6-4	60%	2-2	2-3
HOU WWLWL	5-5	50%	4-2	4-3

Venue/role: OKST away, as favorite; HOU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OKST OOOUU	4-5	44%	7-3
HOU OUUUU	4-6	40%	4-6

Went over in Q4. Of 124 earlier overs in games with totals 53.5–61.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OKST	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	4-5 44%
HOU	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

OKST 10–12 HOU (1 tied) HOU leads · 23 games since 1951 · HOU has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OKST−1.5 →+3.8▲ 5.3#40

HOU−2.3 →−3.9▼ 1.6#84

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

OKST

Longer bar = better

HOU

#68

Offense

◀ OKST better

#88

#80

Defense

◀ OKST better

#110

+0.2 #52

Turnovers

Even

+0.1 #62

72 plays #24

Pace

◀ OKST faster

66 plays #79

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OKST has the ball

Advantage: OKST offense

	OKST off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	27.9 #68	30.8 #109	OKST
Yards / play	5.84 #61	5.85 #89	OKST
PPA / play	+0.13 #68	+0.19 #113	OKST
Success rate	42% #73	47% #128	OKST

When HOU has the ball

Even matchup

	HOU off	OKST def	Edge
Points / game	24.1 #88	26.4 #69	Even
Yards / play	5.59 #76	6.40 #126	HOU
PPA / play	+0.04 #105	+0.12 #77	OKST
Success rate	41% #83	40% #46	OKST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

OKST scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OKST scored	6.5 #56	5.9 #107	12.4 #88	5.0 #90	10.5 #5	15.5 #30
HOU allowed	9.4 #128	7.6 #69	17.0 #114	4.3 #38	7.3 #89	11.6 #59

HOU scoring against the OKST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	4.1 #102	8.3 #64	12.4 #88	3.1 #123	6.5 #77	9.6 #115
OKST allowed	5.9 #81	9.3 #99	15.2 #98	5.7 #71	5.5 #47	11.2 #51

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.