Cincinnati @ West Virginia: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sat, Nov 18, 2023, 2:30 PM ESTWeek 12 · at West Virginia · Conference game

Weather at kickoff49°F4 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Cincinnati

3-7 · Power #76

final

Final

West Virginia

6-4 · Power #39

▲ winner

Closing spread

WVU -5

✓ WVU W

Total

52.5

▲ Over · 63 pts

Model before kickoff

CIN 24–29 WVU

✓ WVU (64%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWVU -5

Total52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseWVU -5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close52.5

Line context

Home favorites of 3–7 since 2023: won 64%, covered 49% (119 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWVU -5

Total52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WVU as a 5-point home favorite against CIN, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: WVU won 42–21; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 63 points went over 52.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.1 against an average line of 4.9; 53.1 points a game (usually 53.6). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UVA vs BC 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & total	-6.5	43–32	W	O54
Very close	OKST vs CIN 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-7.5	45–13	W	O53
Very close	GT vs VT 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	17–26	L	U55.25
Very close	MIA vs VT 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7	38–26	W	O55.5
Very close	USU vs WYO 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & situation	-5.75	17–44	L	O52
Very close	BC vs FSU 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	23–26	L	U55.5
Very close	SYR vs BC 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-6.5	21–6	W	U51.5
Very close	HOU vs CIN 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	14–24	L	U53.75
Very close	ORST vs WSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	24–10	W	U51.5
Very close	WVU vs OKST 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-3	34–48	L	O48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CIN LLLWW	4-6	40%	2-2	3-2
WVU LLWWL	6-4	60%	4-1	3-2

Venue/role: CIN away, as underdog; WVU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CIN UOOUU	6-4	60%	3-7
WVU OOOUO	5-4	56%	6-4

Went over in Q4. Of 149 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–56.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CIN	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
WVU	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CIN+1.0 →−0.4▼ 1.4#66

WVU−6.5 →+2.6▲ 9.1#48

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

CIN

Longer bar = better

WVU

#68

Offense

Even

#57

#78

Defense

Even

#88

−0.4 #102

Turnovers

WVU better ▶

+0.1 #63

75 plays #8

Pace

◀ CIN faster

72 plays #25

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CIN has the ball

Even matchup

	CIN off	WVU def	Edge
Points / game	25.2 #82	27.8 #86	Even
Yards / play	5.95 #52	5.86 #91	CIN
PPA / play	+0.12 #73	+0.15 #94	CIN
Success rate	43% #63	43% #80	Even

When WVU has the ball

Advantage: WVU offense

	WVU off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	30.3 #47	26.9 #76	WVU
Yards / play	5.73 #66	5.97 #103	WVU
PPA / play	+0.14 #62	+0.16 #100	WVU
Success rate	44% #52	38% #33	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

CIN scoring against the WVU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	6.8 #48	7.2 #81	14.0 #73	4.6 #102	6.6 #74	11.2 #98
WVU allowed	6.5 #96	6.1 #38	12.6 #61	4.9 #50	10.3 #127	15.2 #108

WVU scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WVU scored	6.2 #64	9.9 #36	16.1 #43	6.1 #65	8.1 #33	14.2 #48
CIN allowed	4.8 #51	7.2 #68	12.0 #56	7.4 #110	6.8 #75	14.2 #95

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.