Kansas @ Cincinnati: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Sat, Nov 25, 2023, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Cincinnati · Conference game

Weather at kickoff38°F5 mphDryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Kansas

7-4 · Power #24

▲ winner

Final

Cincinnati

3-8 · Power #76

final

Closing spread

KU -7.5

✓ KU W

Total

58.5

▲ Over · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

KU 33–26 CIN

✓ KU (70%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseKU -7.5

Total58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseKU -7.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close58.5

Line context

Road favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 58% (51 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseKU -7.5

Total58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KU as a 7.5-point road favorite at CIN, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: KU won 49–16; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 65 points went over 58.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 8.8 against an average line of 7.3; 60 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	OKST @ HOU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-6.5	43–30	W	O57.5
Very close	UNC @ UVA 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.25	31–28	L	U61.5
Very close	UNC @ UVA 2020 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	41–44	L	O61
Very close	WKU @ FAU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	32–31	L	O62.25
Very close	ARIZ @ COLO 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-8	34–31	L	O55.5
Very close	BYU @ STAN 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-6.5	35–26	W	O57.5
Very close	WMU @ BUFF 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	24–17	P	U59.5
Very close	ORST @ ASU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	31–7	W	U53.5
Very close	MEM @ UAB 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	45–21	W	O62
Very close	WASH @ CAL 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	28–21	L	U54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KU LWWLW	6-5	55%	1-3	3-4
CIN LLWWL	4-7	36%	2-4	3-3

Venue/role: KU away, as favorite; CIN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KU OOUUU	4-6	40%	7-4
CIN OOUUO	7-4	64%	3-8

Went over in Q4. Of 114 earlier overs in games with totals 54.5–62.5, 31% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KU	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	3-6 33%
CIN	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KU+2.0 →+6.6▲ 4.6#30

CIN+1.0 →−1.5▼ 2.5#71

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

Longer bar = better

CIN

#19

Offense

◀ KU better

#67

#88

Defense

Even

#95

+0.1 #54

Turnovers

◀ KU better

−0.3 #99

63 plays #111

Pace

CIN faster ▶

73 plays #12

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KU has the ball

Advantage: KU offense

	KU off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	32.2 #35	28.3 #94	KU
Yards / play	6.71 #14	6.34 #123	KU
PPA / play	+0.30 #10	+0.20 #117	KU
Success rate	48% #16	40% #44	KU

When CIN has the ball

Advantage: CIN offense

	CIN off	KU def	Edge
Points / game	24.8 #84	26.6 #71	Even
Yards / play	5.93 #53	5.80 #86	CIN
PPA / play	+0.12 #71	+0.14 #87	Even
Success rate	43% #58	45% #108	CIN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

KU scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KU scored	6.6 #49	9.4 #43	16.0 #45	8.5 #20	7.6 #48	16.2 #29
CIN allowed	5.0 #56	8.5 #85	13.5 #79	8.0 #114	6.2 #62	14.2 #98

CIN scoring against the KU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	6.2 #63	7.2 #81	13.4 #76	4.2 #108	7.3 #54	11.5 #89
KU allowed	5.3 #65	6.6 #43	11.9 #48	6.1 #76	8.6 #106	14.7 #105

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.