Kansas vs UNLV: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Guaranteed Rate Bowl, 2023)

Tue, Dec 26, 2023, 9:00 PM ESTGuaranteed Rate Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Kansas

8-4 · Power #24

▲ winner

Final

UNLV

9-4 · Power #68

final

Closing spread

KU -7.5

✓ KU W

Total

▲ Over · 85 pts

Model before kickoff

KU 36–28 UNLV

✓ KU (72%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseKU -7.5

Total65

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseKU -7.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close65

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseKU -7.5

Total65

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KU as a 7.5-point neutral-site favorite against UNLV, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: KU won 49–36; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 85 points went over 65, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9 against an average line of 8; 62.8 points a game (usually 54). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ORST vs USU 2021 · Postseason · very close · similar season form & rest	-6.75	13–24	L	U68.25
Very close	TEX vs COLO 2020 · Postseason · very close · similar total & situation	-8.5	55–23	W	O65.5
Very close	ECU vs CCU 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	53–29	W	O67
Very close	SJSU vs BALL 2020 · Postseason · very close · similar total & rest	-9	13–34	L	U65.5
Close	OU vs ORE 2021 · Postseason · close · similar situation & rest	-7	47–32	W	O64
Close	CCU vs LIB 2020 · Postseason · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	34–37	L	O60.25
Close	LIB vs EMU 2021 · Postseason · close · similar rest & season form	-9.5	56–20	W	O58.5
Close	HOU vs HAW 2020 · Postseason · close · similar spread & rest	-7	14–28	L	U60.5
Close	BOIS vs UNT 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & total	-11.75	35–32	L	O63
Close	CLEM vs UNC 2022 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & total	-7.25	39–10	W	U64

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
KU WWLWW	7-5	58%	—	4-4
UNLV WWWLL	10-3	77%	—	5-1

Venue/role: KU neutral, as favorite; UNLV neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KU OUUUO	5-6	45%	8-4
UNLV OUOOO	8-5	62%	9-4

Went over in Q4. Of 42 earlier overs in games with totals 61–69, 26% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KU	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	4-5 44%
UNLV	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KU+2.0 →+8.0▲ 6.0#26

UNLV−2.6 →−1.2▲ 1.4#68

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

Longer bar = better

UNLV

#13

Offense

◀ KU better

#39

#85

Defense

Even

#83

+0.2 #48

Turnovers

UNLV better ▶

+0.5 #26

62 plays #120

Pace

UNLV faster ▶

68 plays #51

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KU has the ball

Advantage: KU offense

	KU off	UNLV def	Edge
Points / game	33.6 #28	27.0 #74	KU
Yards / play	7.01 #8	6.07 #106	KU
PPA / play	+0.32 #5	+0.15 #89	KU
Success rate	49% #11	42% #62	KU

When UNLV has the ball

Advantage: UNLV offense

	UNLV off	KU def	Edge
Points / game	34.3 #22	25.8 #64	UNLV
Yards / play	6.11 #46	5.70 #73	UNLV
PPA / play	+0.21 #33	+0.15 #88	UNLV
Success rate	43% #55	45% #113	UNLV

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

KU scoring against the UNLV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KU scored	6.1 #63	10.3 #29	16.4 #39	8.4 #18	8.8 #19	17.2 #14
UNLV allowed	5.8 #78	8.1 #81	13.9 #81	6.8 #95	6.2 #61	13.1 #80

UNLV scoring against the KU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNLV scored	8.8 #16	9.4 #45	18.2 #19	7.8 #30	8.2 #31	16.1 #30
KU allowed	5.1 #60	6.7 #43	11.8 #44	5.6 #60	8.4 #107	14.0 #95

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.