UCLA vs Boise State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Starco Brands LA Bowl, 2023)

Sat, Dec 16, 2023, 7:30 PM ESTStarco Brands LA Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff66°F8 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

UCLA

7-5 · Power #26

▲ winner

Final

Boise State

8-5 · Power #48

final

Closing spread

UCLA -6.5

✓ UCLA W

Total

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

UCLA 28–22 BOIS

✓ UCLA (66%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUCLA -6.5

Total46

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUCLA -6.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close46

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUCLA -6.5

Total46

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UCLA as a 6.5-point neutral-site favorite against BOIS, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: UCLA won 35–22; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 46, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4 against an average line of 4.9; 48.8 points a game (usually 54). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MINN vs WVU 2021 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & total	-5.75	18–6	W	U44.75
Very close	ORST vs FLA 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	30–3	W	U51.75
Very close	SDSU vs MTSU 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar situation & rest	-7	23–25	L	O47
Close	WISC vs OKST 2022 · Postseason · close · similar total & spread	-5	24–17	W	U45
Close	ND vs SC 2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & season form	-5	45–38	W	O50.5
Close	WISC vs ND 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & total	-6	13–41	L	O44
Close	SDSU vs UTSA 2021 · Postseason · close · similar situation & rest	-3	38–24	W	O48
Close	BAY vs AFA 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	15–30	L	O42.25
Close	NW vs AUB 2020 · Postseason · close · similar total & rest	-3.5	35–19	W	O45
Close	UK vs NCST 2020 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-3	23–21	L	U50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
UCLA LLLWL	5-7	42%	—	4-5
BOIS LWWWW	7-4-2	64%	—	1-2-1

Venue/role: UCLA neutral, as favorite; BOIS neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UCLA UUUUU	2-8	20%	7-5
BOIS OUUOO	7-4	64%	8-5

Went over in Q4. Of 145 earlier overs in games with totals 42–50, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UCLA	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	2-7 22%
BOIS	7-3 70%	5-3-2 63%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UCLA+2.8 →+6.8▲ 4.0#31

BOIS−9.9 →+4.2▲ 14.1#40

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

UCLA

Longer bar = better

BOIS

#79

Offense

BOIS better ▶

#25

#12

Defense

◀ UCLA better

#69

+0.1 #64

Turnovers

◀ UCLA better

−0.1 #78

73 plays #13

Pace

◀ UCLA faster

67 plays #61

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UCLA has the ball

Even matchup

	UCLA off	BOIS def	Edge
Points / game	25.8 #80	24.8 #62	Even
Yards / play	5.78 #64	5.90 #94	UCLA
PPA / play	+0.07 #90	+0.10 #67	BOIS
Success rate	41% #81	41% #51	BOIS

When BOIS has the ball

Even matchup

	BOIS off	UCLA def	Edge
Points / game	32.9 #32	18.1 #15	Even
Yards / play	6.61 #16	4.55 #9	Even
PPA / play	+0.21 #33	−0.06 #8	UCLA
Success rate	48% #19	37% #17	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UCLA scoring against the BOIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCLA scored	6.4 #53	7.1 #82	13.5 #75	6.0 #74	6.3 #80	12.3 #80
BOIS allowed	4.8 #49	8.7 #91	13.5 #76	4.5 #40	6.8 #80	11.4 #53

BOIS scoring against the UCLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BOIS scored	5.6 #76	13.2 #7	18.8 #18	6.4 #65	7.8 #40	14.2 #49
UCLA allowed	4.1 #27	5.6 #30	9.7 #23	4.2 #32	4.3 #11	8.4 #12

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.