New Mexico State vs Fresno State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Isleta New Mexico Bowl, 2023)

Sat, Dec 16, 2023, 5:45 PM ESTIsleta New Mexico Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff42°F4 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

New Mexico State

10-4 · Power #84

final

Final

Fresno State

8-4 · Power #71

▲ winner

Closing spread

NMSU -3

✓ FRES W

Total

▼ Under · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

NMSU 27–25 FRES

✗ NMSU (57%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNMSU -3

Total52

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseNMSU -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close52

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNMSU -3

Total52

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NMSU as a 3-point neutral-site favorite against FRES, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: FRES won 37–10 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 47 points stayed under 52, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.3 against an average line of 3.3; 52.5 points a game (usually 53.9). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TOL vs LIB 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	21–19	L	U51
Very close	UL vs MRSH 2021 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & spread	-4	36–21	W	O55.5
Very close	SJSU vs EMU 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	27–41	L	O54
Very close	GAST vs WKU 2020 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.25	39–21	W	O50.5
Very close	FRES vs WSU 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	29–6	W	U54
Very close	M-OH vs UNT 2021 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	27–14	W	U56.5
Very close	SDSU vs UTSA 2021 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	38–24	W	O48
Very close	TULN vs NEV 2020 · Postseason · very close · similar season form & spread	-1.25	27–38	L	O56.5
Very close	UTSA vs TROY 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	12–18	L	U56.5
Close	USA vs WKU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & spread	-3.75	23–44	L	O58

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
NMSU WWWWL	11-3	79%	—	5-1
FRES LWLLL	4-8	33%	—	1-1

Venue/role: NMSU neutral, as favorite; FRES neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NMSU UOUUO	4-9	31%	10-4
FRES UOOUO	6-4	60%	8-4

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 58% of games with totals 48–56 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NMSU	8-2 80%	9-1 90%	2-7 22%
FRES	6-4 60%	3-7 30%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NMSU−6.9 →−2.6▲ 4.3#74

FRES+4.2 →−3.1▼ 7.3#77

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

NMSU

Longer bar = better

FRES

#26

Offense

◀ NMSU better

#60

#81

Defense

FRES better ▶

#65

−0.2 #92

Turnovers

FRES better ▶

+0.8 #9

61 plays #126

Pace

FRES faster ▶

68 plays #49

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NMSU has the ball

Advantage: NMSU offense

	NMSU off	FRES def	Edge
Points / game	28.7 #58	24.6 #58	Even
Yards / play	6.99 #9	5.49 #59	NMSU
PPA / play	+0.25 #19	+0.13 #79	NMSU
Success rate	48% #17	42% #62	NMSU

When FRES has the ball

Advantage: FRES offense

	FRES off	NMSU def	Edge
Points / game	29.9 #52	21.8 #36	Even
Yards / play	5.54 #78	6.01 #100	FRES
PPA / play	+0.15 #56	+0.14 #84	FRES
Success rate	43% #52	44% #103	FRES

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

NMSU scoring against the FRES defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NMSU scored	5.6 #76	9.6 #45	15.3 #55	5.9 #76	7.6 #48	13.4 #60
FRES allowed	5.3 #63	7.6 #66	12.9 #67	4.3 #34	6.8 #77	11.1 #46

FRES scoring against the NMSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FRES scored	7.8 #28	7.1 #82	14.9 #63	7.8 #33	6.4 #78	14.2 #47
NMSU allowed	3.4 #20	7.7 #72	11.1 #38	4.1 #29	6.5 #67	10.6 #38

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.