Miami (OH) vs App State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Avocados From Mexico Cure Bowl, 2023)

Sat, Dec 16, 2023, 3:30 PM ESTAvocados From Mexico Cure Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff66°F15 mphgusts 25Wet0.2 mmWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Miami (OH)

11-2 · Power #78

final

Final

App State

8-5 · Power #61

▲ winner

Closing spread

APP -6.5

✓ M-OH W

Total

▼ Under · 22 pts

Model before kickoff

M-OH 21–26 APP

✓ APP (66%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseAPP -6.5

Total41

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseAPP -6.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close41

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseAPP -6.5

Total41

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like APP as a 6.5-point neutral-site favorite against M-OH, the favorite won 6, covered 2, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: APP won 13–9; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 22 points stayed under 41, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

2 of 825%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 1.1 against an average line of 5.1; 37.9 points a game (usually 54). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TOL vs M-OH 2023 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & season form	-7	14–23	L	U43.5
Close	BAY vs AFA 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	15–30	L	O42.25
Close	AFA vs ARMY 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar total & rest	-7	13–7	L	U40.5
Close	AFA vs ARMY 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	14–21	L	U37.5
Close	WVU vs ARMY 2020 · Postseason · close · similar total & situation	-9.75	24–21	L	O40.5
Close	OHIO vs WYO 2022 · Postseason · close · similar total	-3	30–27	P	O43
Close	SDSU vs MTSU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & spread	-7	23–25	L	O47
Close	LOU vs CIN 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	24–7	W	U38.5
Close	MINN vs WVU 2021 · Postseason · close · similar spread & season form	-5.75	18–6	W	U44.75
Loose	UK vs IOWA 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & total	-3	20–17	P	U43.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
M-OH WWWLW	10-3	77%	1-0	3-2
APP WWWWL	6-6-1	50%	—	3-5

Venue/role: M-OH neutral, as underdog; APP neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
M-OH OUUUU	5-6	45%	11-2
APP UUUOO	7-6	54%	8-5

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 54% of games with totals 37–45 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
M-OH	9-1 90%	8-2 80%	3-6 33%
APP	6-4 60%	4-5-1 44%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

M-OH−11.1 →−2.7▲ 8.4#75

APP−1.3 →+0.4▲ 1.7#61

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

M-OH

Longer bar = better

APP

#80

Offense

APP better ▶

#33

#24

Defense

◀ M-OH better

#86

+0.2 #51

Turnovers

Even

+0.2 #46

57 plays #133

Pace

APP faster ▶

72 plays #20

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When M-OH has the ball

Even matchup

	M-OH off	APP def	Edge
Points / game	26.9 #69	28.4 #92	M-OH
Yards / play	5.78 #63	5.83 #86	M-OH
PPA / play	+0.13 #70	+0.13 #80	Even
Success rate	37% #119	43% #85	APP

When APP has the ball

Even matchup

	APP off	M-OH def	Edge
Points / game	34.8 #21	16.2 #7	Even
Yards / play	6.27 #37	4.93 #18	Even
PPA / play	+0.20 #39	+0.04 #28	Even
Success rate	46% #36	40% #43	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

M-OH scoring against the APP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
M-OH scored	7.7 #31	6.7 #90	14.4 #68	6.9 #57	5.1 #109	12.0 #82
APP allowed	4.3 #35	9.0 #95	13.3 #71	5.6 #61	8.2 #101	13.8 #94

APP scoring against the M-OH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
APP scored	4.9 #89	10.8 #21	15.7 #52	9.0 #12	9.1 #18	18.1 #10
M-OH allowed	4.2 #28	4.6 #13	8.8 #18	3.7 #16	3.6 #6	7.3 #8

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.