Troy vs Duke: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (76 Birmingham Bowl, 2023)

Sat, Dec 23, 2023, 12:00 PM EST76 Birmingham Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff62°F6 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Troy

11-2 · Power #29

final

Final

Duke

7-5 · Power #37

▲ winner

Closing spread

TROY -6.5

✓ DUKE W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 27 pts

Model before kickoff

TROY 25–20 DUKE

✗ TROY (65%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseTROY -6.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTROY -6.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close44.5

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseTROY -6.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TROY as a 6.5-point neutral-site favorite against DUKE, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: DUKE won 17–10 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 27 points stayed under 44.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 3 against an average line of 5.6; 37.8 points a game (usually 54). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MINN vs WVU 2021 · Postseason · very close · similar total & spread	-5.75	18–6	W	U44.75
Close	NW vs AUB 2020 · Postseason · close · similar total & rest	-3.5	35–19	W	O45
Close	OKST vs BAY 2021 · Week 14 · close · similar total & spread	-7	16–21	L	U45
Close	ORST vs FLA 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	30–3	W	U51.75
Close	WISC vs ND 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar total & spread	-6	13–41	L	O44
Close	UK vs IOWA 2021 · Postseason · close · similar total & situation	-3	20–17	P	U43.5
Close	WISC vs OKST 2022 · Postseason · close · similar total & spread	-5	24–17	W	U45
Close	AFA vs ARMY 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-7	13–7	L	U40.5
Close	WISC vs ASU 2021 · Postseason · close · similar spread & total	-7.75	20–13	L	U42.5
Close	BAY vs AFA 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	15–30	L	O42.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
TROY WWLWW	8-5	62%	—	7-4
DUKE LLWLW	6-6	50%	—	2-3

Venue/role: TROY neutral, as favorite; DUKE neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TROY UOOOO	6-6	50%	11-2
DUKE UOOOO	7-3-1	70%	7-5

Stayed under: it needed 28 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 53% of games with totals 40.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TROY	10-0 100%	8-2 80%	4-5 44%
DUKE	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TROY0.0 →+7.3▲ 7.3#29

DUKE+4.1 →+5.6▲ 1.5#37

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

TROY

Longer bar = better

DUKE

#53

Offense

Even

#63

#15

Defense

◀ TROY better

#51

+0.3 #39

Turnovers

◀ TROY better

+0.1 #65

68 plays #57

Pace

◀ TROY faster

62 plays #125

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TROY has the ball

Even matchup

	TROY off	DUKE def	Edge
Points / game	31.2 #43	19.8 #23	Even
Yards / play	6.30 #34	5.15 #32	Even
PPA / play	+0.16 #54	+0.08 #55	Even
Success rate	41% #79	44% #92	Even

When DUKE has the ball

Advantage: TROY defense

	DUKE off	TROY def	Edge
Points / game	27.8 #64	17.2 #10	TROY
Yards / play	5.68 #74	4.75 #12	TROY
PPA / play	+0.15 #55	−0.06 #7	TROY
Success rate	42% #60	38% #30	TROY

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

TROY scoring against the DUKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TROY scored	3.7 #114	10.7 #23	14.4 #68	5.5 #81	11.2 #3	16.8 #20
DUKE allowed	5.4 #68	4.4 #9	9.8 #26	3.0 #9	6.0 #54	9.0 #20

DUKE scoring against the TROY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DUKE scored	3.7 #115	9.3 #46	13.0 #80	6.3 #65	7.7 #45	14.0 #48
TROY allowed	3.2 #14	5.5 #29	8.6 #13	3.9 #22	4.6 #21	8.5 #16

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.