Western Kentucky vs Old Dominion: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Famous Toastery Bowl, 2023)

Mon, Dec 18, 2023, 2:30 PM ESTFamous Toastery Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff54°F11 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Western Kentucky

7-5 · Power #83

▲ winner

Final

Old Dominion

6-6 · Power #97

final

Closing spread

ODU -4.5

✓ WKU W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 73 pts

Model before kickoff

WKU 25–28 ODU

✗ ODU (59%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseODU -4.5

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseODU -4.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close49.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseODU -4.5

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ODU as a 4.5-point neutral-site favorite against WKU, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: WKU won 38–35 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 73 points went over 49.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.1 against an average line of 4.9; 51.1 points a game (usually 53.8). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TOL vs LIB 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	21–19	L	U51
Close	SDSU vs UTSA 2021 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-3	38–24	W	O48
Close	GAST vs BALL 2021 · Postseason · close · similar situation & season form	-6	51–20	W	O53
Close	SDSU vs MTSU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-7	23–25	L	O47
Close	FRES vs WSU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	29–6	W	U54
Close	GAST vs WKU 2020 · Postseason · close · similar rest & total	-3.25	39–21	W	O50.5
Close	USM vs RICE 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	38–24	W	O45.5
Close	SJSU vs EMU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	27–41	L	O54
Close	GASO vs LT 2020 · Postseason · close · similar total & season form	-7.25	38–3	W	U48
Close	TOL vs OHIO 2022 · Week 14 · close · similar spread	-3.5	17–7	W	U54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
WKU LLLLW	4-8	33%	—	1-2
ODU WLLWL	7-4	64%	—	0-2

Venue/role: WKU neutral, as underdog; ODU neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WKU OUOUO	5-5	50%	7-5
ODU OOUUU	5-5	50%	6-6

Went over in Q4. Of 177 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–53.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WKU	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	4-5 44%
ODU	5-5 50%	6-3 67%	3-5 38%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WKU+3.1 →−3.9▼ 7.0#85

ODU−5.2 →−6.5▼ 1.3#97

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

WKU

Longer bar = better

ODU

#66

Offense

◀ WKU better

#105

#89

Defense

ODU better ▶

#62

+0.6 #23

Turnovers

◀ WKU better

−0.1 #84

67 plays #62

Pace

◀ WKU faster

65 plays #81

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WKU has the ball

Even matchup

	WKU off	ODU def	Edge
Points / game	29.8 #54	26.3 #69	Even
Yards / play	5.90 #56	5.23 #41	Even
PPA / play	+0.15 #55	+0.05 #35	Even
Success rate	40% #97	44% #101	Even

When ODU has the ball

Even matchup

	ODU off	WKU def	Edge
Points / game	22.9 #102	28.2 #89	Even
Yards / play	5.38 #86	5.79 #83	Even
PPA / play	+0.01 #121	+0.13 #82	WKU
Success rate	38% #112	44% #103	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

WKU scoring against the ODU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WKU scored	10.9 #7	7.9 #67	18.8 #17	4.1 #108	6.9 #66	11.0 #98
ODU allowed	5.0 #57	8.1 #82	13.1 #72	7.5 #108	5.7 #40	13.2 #81

ODU scoring against the WKU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ODU scored	2.0 #133	7.9 #67	9.9 #110	7.5 #44	5.5 #100	13.0 #64
WKU allowed	3.2 #16	10.2 #113	13.3 #73	6.1 #76	8.8 #112	14.8 #105

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.