Georgia State @ Old Dominion: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Sat, Nov 25, 2023, 2:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Old Dominion · Conference game

Weather at kickoff46°F15 mphgusts 27DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Georgia State

6-5 · Power #91

final

Final

Old Dominion

5-6 · Power #97

▲ winner

Closing spread

ODU -1.5

✓ GAST W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

GAST 25–26 ODU

✓ ODU (55%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseODU -1.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseODU -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close51.5

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 49%, covered 47% (47 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseODU -1.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ODU as a 1.5-point home favorite against GAST, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: ODU won 25–24; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 49 points stayed under 51.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 5.2 against an average line of 2.4; 53.4 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	EMU vs CMU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-1	38–19	W	O53.5
Very close	BUFF vs M-OH 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3	24–20	W	U50.25
Very close	RUTG vs MD 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2	16–40	L	O53
Very close	NU vs PUR 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	23–15	W	U47.5
Very close	USM vs GAST 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2	14–42	L	O48
Very close	BALL vs M-OH 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	17–24	L	U53
Very close	CMU vs BUFF 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.75	31–27	W	O54
Very close	UVA vs GT 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	17–45	L	O56
Very close	BUFF vs KENT 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & situation	-4.5	27–30	L	O51
Very close	WSU vs STAN 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1	34–31	W	O53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GAST WLLLL	5-6	45%	3-2	2-2
ODU WWLLW	7-3	70%	3-1	0-1

Venue/role: GAST away, as underdog; ODU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GAST UOOUU	5-6	45%	6-5
ODU UOOUU	5-4	56%	5-6

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 21. 58% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GAST	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
ODU	5-5 50%	7-2 78%	4-4 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GAST−3.6 →−6.7▼ 3.1#99

ODU−5.2 →−6.6▼ 1.4#97

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

GAST

Longer bar = better

ODU

#76

Offense

◀ GAST better

#96

#112

Defense

ODU better ▶

#70

+0.3 #43

Turnovers

◀ GAST better

−0.2 #94

67 plays #69

Pace

◀ GAST faster

65 plays #92

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GAST has the ball

Even matchup

	GAST off	ODU def	Edge
Points / game	25.9 #78	26.5 #69	Even
Yards / play	5.69 #72	5.35 #54	Even
PPA / play	+0.13 #69	+0.07 #48	ODU
Success rate	41% #84	45% #107	GAST

When ODU has the ball

Even matchup

	ODU off	GAST def	Edge
Points / game	22.7 #100	31.3 #111	Even
Yards / play	5.46 #82	6.53 #130	ODU
PPA / play	+0.03 #113	+0.19 #114	Even
Success rate	40% #87	44% #94	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

GAST scoring against the ODU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GAST scored	6.4 #56	8.3 #58	14.6 #65	5.4 #87	5.9 #92	11.3 #95
ODU allowed	4.8 #53	7.5 #68	12.4 #59	8.2 #118	5.9 #54	14.1 #94

ODU scoring against the GAST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ODU scored	2.2 #132	8.6 #55	10.8 #102	7.5 #44	4.4 #122	11.9 #82
GAST allowed	4.6 #46	9.4 #103	14.0 #83	9.4 #130	7.9 #98	17.3 #123

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.