Arkansas State @ Marshall: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Sat, Nov 25, 2023, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Marshall · Conference game

Weather at kickoff48°F2 mphgusts 7DryWeather watch ›

Arkansas State

6-5 · Power #107

final

Final

Marshall

5-6 · Power #96

▲ winner

Closing spread

MRSH -1.5

✓ MRSH W

Total

52.5

▲ Over · 56 pts

Model before kickoff

ARST 25–27 MRSH

✓ MRSH (56%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMRSH -1.5

Total52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMRSH -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close52.5

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 51%, covered 47% (51 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMRSH -1.5

Total52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MRSH as a 1.5-point home favorite against ARST, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: MRSH won 35–21; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 56 points went over 52.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 1.5 against an average line of 2.7; 50.9 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MTSU vs LT 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-3	31–23	W	P54
Very close	CMU vs BUFF 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.75	31–27	W	O54
Very close	FAU vs MTSU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	17–27	L	U49.5
Very close	USM vs ODU 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3	13–17	L	U56.5
Very close	GAST vs ODU 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & season form	-3.5	31–17	W	U53.75
Very close	BALL vs M-OH 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.5	17–24	L	U53
Very close	FAU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar team ratings & total	-3	20–17	P	U54.5
Very close	EMU vs CMU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-1	38–19	W	O53.5
Very close	MTSU vs JXST 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	30–45	L	O52
Very close	WSU vs STAN 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & spread	-1	34–31	W	O53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARST LWWWW	7-4	64%	3-2	6-4
MRSH LLLWL	3-8	27%	2-3	2-3

Venue/role: ARST away, as underdog; MRSH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARST UOUUO	4-5	44%	6-5
MRSH UUUOU	4-6	40%	5-6

Went over in Q4. Of 160 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–56.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARST	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	4-5 44%
MRSH	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARST−20.5 →−7.8▲ 12.7#105

MRSH−2.3 →−6.6▼ 4.3#98

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

ARST

Longer bar = better

MRSH

#64

Offense

◀ ARST better

#111

#97

Defense

MRSH better ▶

#59

+0.2 #48

Turnovers

◀ ARST better

−1.2 #134

64 plays #97

Pace

MRSH faster ▶

67 plays #68

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARST has the ball

Even matchup

	ARST off	MRSH def	Edge
Points / game	28.4 #63	28.8 #97	ARST
Yards / play	5.96 #54	5.60 #73	Even
PPA / play	+0.15 #58	+0.07 #45	Even
Success rate	42% #79	37% #20	MRSH

When MRSH has the ball

Even matchup

	MRSH off	ARST def	Edge
Points / game	22.2 #104	30.8 #107	Even
Yards / play	5.18 #102	6.15 #111	Even
PPA / play	−0.03 #125	+0.19 #110	Even
Success rate	38% #112	41% #60	ARST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

ARST scoring against the MRSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARST scored	7.8 #30	5.1 #126	12.9 #84	7.9 #30	7.5 #50	15.5 #34
MRSH allowed	5.6 #78	11.1 #128	16.7 #111	5.5 #60	6.5 #71	12.1 #66

MRSH scoring against the ARST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MRSH scored	3.1 #121	7.0 #82	10.1 #107	6.7 #59	5.4 #104	12.1 #78
ARST allowed	6.8 #98	9.8 #111	16.6 #109	7.2 #104	7.0 #84	14.2 #97

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.