Georgia Southern @ App State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Sat, Nov 25, 2023, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at App State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff40°F6 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Georgia Southern

6-5 · Power #92

final

Final

App State

7-4 · Power #61

▲ winner

Closing spread

APP -10

✓ APP W

Total

▲ Over · 82 pts

Model before kickoff

GASO 27–37 APP

✓ APP (75%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseAPP -10

Total63

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseAPP -10

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close63

Line context

Home favorites of 9–11 since 2023: won 85%, covered 47% (47 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseAPP -10

Total63

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like APP as a 10-point home favorite against GASO, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: APP won 55–27; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 82 points went over 63, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.5 against an average line of 9.3; 55.1 points a game (usually 54.7). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CMU vs EMU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & season form	-8.5	31–10	W	U63.5
Very close	MIA vs GT 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-10	33–30	L	P63
Very close	WMU vs CMU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & total	-9	30–42	L	O64.5
Very close	WKU vs FAU 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-11.25	52–17	W	O64
Very close	WSU vs ASU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-9.5	28–18	W	U59.5
Very close	UCF vs ECU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-10	20–16	L	U65.25
Very close	TOL vs KENT 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & rest	-7	52–31	W	O62.5
Very close	MSU vs MD 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-11.5	40–21	W	O60.5
Very close	HOU vs MEM 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & situation	-9.5	31–13	W	U59.25
Very close	MEM vs TLSA 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & situation	-6.5	26–10	W	U62.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GASO LWLLL	4-6-1	40%	1-4	0-3
APP LLWWW	5-5-1	50%	2-3	2-5

Venue/role: GASO away, as underdog; APP home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GASO OOOOU	5-6	45%	6-5
APP UOUUU	5-6	45%	7-4

Went over in Q4. Of 60 earlier overs in games with totals 59–67, 28% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GASO	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
APP	6-4 60%	5-4-1 56%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

GASO 10–14 APP APP leads · 24 games since 2003 · GASO has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GASO+2.5 →−3.8▼ 6.3#82

APP−1.3 →−0.1▲ 1.2#62

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

GASO

Longer bar = better

APP

#58

Offense

APP better ▶

#36

#90

Defense

APP better ▶

#76

−0.2 #92

Turnovers

APP better ▶

+0.1 #58

75 plays #6

Pace

◀ GASO faster

71 plays #25

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GASO has the ball

Even matchup

	GASO off	APP def	Edge
Points / game	31.3 #43	26.6 #73	GASO
Yards / play	5.69 #73	5.69 #80	Even
PPA / play	+0.12 #74	+0.11 #78	Even
Success rate	45% #41	42% #71	GASO

When APP has the ball

Advantage: APP offense

	APP off	GASO def	Edge
Points / game	34.0 #25	27.3 #83	APP
Yards / play	6.30 #35	5.93 #97	APP
PPA / play	+0.20 #39	+0.14 #85	APP
Success rate	44% #44	44% #95	APP

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

GASO scoring against the APP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GASO scored	6.5 #51	12.0 #12	18.5 #18	6.5 #63	6.3 #79	12.7 #73
APP allowed	3.8 #26	9.1 #99	12.9 #68	6.0 #74	6.3 #65	12.3 #68

APP scoring against the GASO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
APP scored	5.5 #76	9.9 #36	15.5 #50	8.5 #20	8.9 #20	17.4 #13
GASO allowed	4.7 #48	8.2 #82	12.9 #68	9.2 #129	5.2 #38	14.4 #101

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.