Troy @ Southern Miss: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Sat, Nov 25, 2023, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Southern Miss · Conference game

Weather at kickoff62°F3 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Troy

9-2 · Power #29

▲ winner

Final

Southern Miss

3-8 · Power #121

final

Closing spread

TROY -17

✓ TROY W

Total

▲ Over · 52 pts

Model before kickoff

TROY 33–16 USM

✓ TROY (89%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTROY -17

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTROY -17

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close48

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTROY -17

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TROY as a 17-point road favorite at USM, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 2 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: TROY won 35–17; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 52 points went over 48, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 88%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16.1 against an average line of 17.2; 39.5 points a game (usually 55). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CIN @ TEM 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-17	23–3	W	U49
Very close	UCLA @ STAN 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-17	42–7	W	U52
Very close	TOL @ BALL 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & rest	-17.5	13–6	L	U48
Very close	UAB @ USM 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-17	34–0	W	U43.25
Very close	AFA @ CSU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-14.5	30–13	W	U47.5
Very close	AFA @ HAW 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-20.5	13–27	L	U47.5
Very close	TULN @ ECU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-17	13–10	L	U44.5
Very close	WYO @ UNLV 2020 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-16.5	45–14	W	O52
Very close	PSU @ RUTG 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-18.5	55–10	W	O45
Close	BOIS @ UTEP 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & rest	-16.25	10–27	L	U44.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TROY WWWWL	6-5	55%	4-1	5-4
USM LWWWL	4-7	36%	2-3	2-5

Venue/role: TROY away, as favorite; USM home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TROY UUUOO	4-6	40%	9-2
USM OOUOO	8-2	80%	3-8

Went over in Q4. Of 151 earlier overs in games with totals 44–52, 31% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TROY	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	3-6 33%
USM	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	7-2 78%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

TROY 7–3 USM TROY leads · 10 games since 1977 · TROY has won the last 6 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TROY0.0 →+6.5▲ 6.5#31

USM−0.3 →−11.2▼ 10.9#118

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

TROY

Longer bar = better

USM

#65

Offense

◀ TROY better

#104

#14

Defense

◀ TROY better

#109

+0.4 #39

Turnovers

◀ TROY better

0.0 #71

68 plays #50

Pace

USM faster ▶

71 plays #27

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TROY has the ball

Advantage: TROY offense

	TROY off	USM def	Edge
Points / game	29.2 #57	35.8 #129	TROY
Yards / play	6.19 #41	6.78 #134	TROY
PPA / play	+0.14 #62	+0.17 #104	TROY
Success rate	40% #98	42% #67	USM

When USM has the ball

Advantage: TROY defense

	USM off	TROY def	Edge
Points / game	23.7 #91	16.6 #9	TROY
Yards / play	5.06 #110	4.77 #14	TROY
PPA / play	+0.07 #92	−0.06 #8	TROY
Success rate	37% #121	38% #26	TROY

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

TROY scoring against the USM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TROY scored	3.7 #111	10.7 #24	14.5 #70	4.6 #99	10.1 #8	14.7 #40
USM allowed	9.2 #127	8.0 #76	17.2 #114	8.8 #125	9.5 #120	18.4 #131

USM scoring against the TROY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USM scored	6.2 #63	5.5 #114	11.7 #93	5.1 #91	6.4 #77	11.5 #89
TROY allowed	3.7 #27	4.9 #19	8.6 #17	3.1 #10	4.9 #29	8.0 #14

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.